By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.
- Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
- Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
- A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
- Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold ended the week at 1589.05. Thursday’s gains continued through on Friday with gold opening higher at 1584.50/1585.50. Early session declines to an intraday low of 1578.50/1579.50 were pared as the metal regained strength from strong bids. Rising in tandem with equities, gold quickly reached an intraday high of 1596.50/1597.50 midmorning. Relaxing near the high end of its range throughout the remainder of the session, gold then ended the week at 1591.80/1592.80
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jul 13, 2012 |
1589.05 |
1568.15 |
1596.45 |
1567.15 |
1.33% |
|
Jul 12, 2012 |
1568.25 |
1576.85 |
1576.85 |
1554.55 |
-0.54% |
|
Jul 11, 2012 |
1576.75 |
1571.35 |
1583.05 |
1566.95 |
0.36% |
|
Jul 10, 2012 |
1571.15 |
1587.65 |
1601.25 |
1564.45 |
-1.05% |
|
Jul 09, 2012 |
1587.75 |
1578.45 |
1593.05 |
1578.05 |
0.56% |
Gold is closing higher this week at current 1592. This was the tenth consecutive week of alternating between UP and Down weeks. The ranges have become smaller with the weekly price action forming a triangular pattern with current boundaries seen at 1555 and 1618. The deeper we move into the triangle the less of an explosion the breakout will yield. We see 1528 and 1640 the more significant break out levels. We would expect a break of either of these levels to yield at least a $200 move to 1300s or 1800s
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 9 – 13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 9 |
EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
-29.6 |
-26.3 |
-28.9 |
|
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
1.4% |
1.3% |
||
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-22% |
-15% |
-17% |
|
|
Jul 10 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production m/m |
-1.9% |
-0.9% |
1.4% |
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial Production m/m |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
-2.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
1.2% |
0.1% |
-0.8% |
|
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.4B |
-9.0B |
-9.7B |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
||
|
Jul 11 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-48.7B |
-48.5B |
-50.6B |
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.7M |
-1.3M |
-4.3M |
|
|
Jul 12 |
EUR |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.6% |
0.0% |
-1.1% |
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
350K |
376K |
376K |
|
|
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-2.7% |
-1.5% |
-1.2% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-59.7B |
-91.7B |
-124.6B |
|
|
Jul 13 |
CHF |
PPI m/m |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
-0.5% |
-1.0% |
|
|
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.0 |
73.5 |
73.2 |
Historical
Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011
Average: 1418.48 over this period
Lowest: 1026.95 on Oct 28, 2009
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 16 |
7:15 |
CHF |
Industrial Production q/q |
-7.5% |
8.8% |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI y/y |
2.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
2.3 |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.4% |
||
|
Jul 17 |
8:30 |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
2.8% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-16.9 |
||
|
9:15 |
ALL |
G7 Meetings |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
CPI m/m |
-0.3% |
||
|
13:00 |
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
25.6B |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
-0.1% |
||
|
Jul 18 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
8.1K |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
||
|
9:00 |
CHF |
ZEW Economic Expectations |
-43.4 |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.78M |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.71M |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.7M |
||
|
Jul 19 |
6:00 |
CHF |
Trade Balance |
2.48B |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Current Account |
4.6B |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
1.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.55M |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-16.6 |
||
|
Jul 20 |
6:00 |
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
-0.3% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
15.6B |
Click here to read Gold Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
