FYI, if you go back to my letters on Jan 23 and 24, I suggested selling the 12,000 print in Dow cash and the 1300 print in S&P Cash. currently, Dow is down 167 and the S&P 500 is down 22 HANDLES!! Sweet when a plan turns out.
Its always the thing you can’t expect that turns the tide. Egypt having its government overthrown, is one thing no one expected…Certainly I didn’t read any thing about it a month ago..
What is going to happen to the Suez Canal?? Time will tell but markets don’t like uncertainty.
We had rallied so much. Just yesterday, I was watching CNBC in the morning. Some analyst was all bulled up, with a long term chart of the S&P’s… Talking about what I have been saying for 6 months.
Important safety tip… When the national financial media does a story.. FADE IT… More often than not its a winning trade. The reporters are looking for “excitment” and bullish excitement is the best kind of excitement because it keeps the viewers happy. …
Any how, about a month ago, I got bearish gold at 1400 because NPR was doing a story about gold. Its such a simple rule. I think I first read about it in an interview with Jimmy Rodgers or Julian Robertson, in an old issue of Oustanding Investor Journal… Its a tid bit that I have held on to over 23 years which has been very profitable.
I can’t tell you how many times, when I came onto the floor and there was an article about some financial movement in the business section of the Tribune, Sun Times or best yet, the WSJ, it was almost a slam dunk to initiate a trade that day in the opposite direction of what the article was talking about…. Sky’s the limit on a bull move… I’d sell into it>> End of world as prices move to scary lows… I’d buy some on a fade…
Anyhow…
I hope you all made some good money on the stock index short, as well as the crude long… Crude is up 3.30 from my buy point this morning. I don’t think I will be taking it home over the weekend. Take the profits on 1/3 of the position.
For the Dow and S&P shorts, take profits on 1/2, and sit tight…,
A good flush may yet be out there to the down side.
I had 1297 as a buy target for the Gold Break. We never got there, with a break down to 1307.6, In my opinion, the first time gold trades back to 1352, I would sell. I would use very tight stops though. The 1366 level should be sold on a bounce to there as well. I think both of those sales will give you a chance to make money. Silver could bounce to 28.80, again, I would initiate sales there.
That is all… Have a good weekend.
CER
