Ya know, I have always heard the market leads the economy by some 6-9 months. Perhaps this is true in the aggregate, meaning over the historical frame of the market, but these days, it hardly seems applicable. The variables are too varied and too complex. This seems to be an era of fiscal and economic experimentation, which carries with it a certain sense of trepidation. Metaphorically speaking, sometimes it seems as if we have lost our North Star, that point in the sky that is always in the same place, a constant.
Where will we be in 6-9 months? I am not referring to just the economy here. I am asking in the most general sense. Where will the market be? What will Europe look like fiscally? What will the Chinese economy look like? Will inflation kill it in the short term? Will the emerging economies of Eastern Europe have formed up their burgeoning middle classes? Will the U.S. be in the middle of a major bond market catastrophe? Will the dollar be strong or weak? Will the U.S be on the road to redefining and rebuilding the manufacturing base we absolutely need to remain the greatest economic power the world has ever known? Will the world be on the path to another form of energy aside from oil? I could go on, as the possible questions are endless. Suffice it to say that in these days of fiscal and economic experimentation, the general futuristic question is the right question to ask.
If anyone can answer this with certainty, I would love to hear that answer. In fact, I would love to hear anyone’s speculation or theory based on evidentiary thinking. I have been espousing my theories on most all of the questions above for some time now, so anyone who has been reading this column knows my thoughts and my theories. Truth be known, I am losing faith in my reliance on historical precedence to point to future events. Events are moving fast, and things are happening day-to-day that are, to me, wicked curve balls.
So here is my challenge. I would like to know what you, the non-pundit, the unprofessional analyst, think about the future 6-9 months out. Write to me (keep it focused and succinct) and tell me, and I will publish all your “theories,” even if I do not agree.
I wonder if this is how the folks in 1930s America felt?
Trade in the day; invest in your life
