by Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst TraderPlanet.com

DECEMBER CORN

December corn futures closed down 13 cents at $3.62 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh six-week low on long liquidation pressure and fund selling. Updated weather forecasts that called for better chances of rain and moderate temperatures for the Corn Belt were also bearish today. Serious near-term technical damage has occurred to begin to suggest that a market top is in place. However, my bias is that the corn market is overdone on the downside and that there is not much downside potential left in the market. But if the trend of the weather turns favorable for growing the corn crop, then the upside will be limited. It’s going to take another weather market scare to drive prices back higher. Bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the May low of $3.56 a bushel. Traders are awaiting Friday’s USDA planted acres report. My bias is that after the report’s release trader attention will immediately turn to weather forecasts. First resistance for December corn is seen at $3.65 and then at $3.67 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.58 and then at $3.56.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0.

NOVEMBER SOYBEANS

November soybeans closed down 4 1/2 cents at $8.37 1/2 today. Prices closed near mid-range and were pressured by benign near-term weather forecasts for the Corn Belt. No serious chart damage has occurred from the recent sell off, but the bulls have faded. And there is now the specter of a bear flag forming on the daily bar chart. The bulls still have the technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $8.47 1/2, which would fill on the upside last week’s downside price gap on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of $8.25. First resistance for November soybeans is seen at today’s high of $8.45 1/2 and then at $8.47 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $8.28 1/2 and then at $8.25.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0.

wyckof517.jpg

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

DECEMBER SOYBEAN MEAL

December soybean meal closed down $1.90 at $228.90 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Meal bulls have faded recently. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid chart resistance at $238.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of $225.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $232.20 and then at $234.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $227.00 and then at $225.00.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0.

DECEMBER BEAN OIL

December bean oil closed down 4 points at 36.35 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. No chart damage has occurred recently but bulls have faded. Bean oil bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is pushing prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 37.65 cents. Bears’ next downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid support at the June low of 35.75 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 36.70 cents and then at 37.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 35.89 cents and then at 35.75 cents.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0.

DECEMBER CHICAGO SRW WHEAT

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 5 1/2 cents at $6.28 1/2 today. Prices scored a fresh contract high today and then backed off on mild profit-taking pressure to close nearer the session low and score a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. If there is strong follow-through selling pressure on Thursday, then a bearish “key reversal” down would be confirmed on the daily bar chart. That would be one very early clue that a market top is in place. But right now wheat bulls still have strong upside technical momentum and are looking for more on the upside in the near term. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to close prices above resistance at today’s contract high of $6.46 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below psychological support at $6.00 a bushel. First resistance is seen at $6.34 and then at $6.40. First support lies at today’s low of $6.21 and then at $6.10.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.5.

DECEMBER K.C. HRW WHEAT

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 4 cents at $6.16 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls still have the solid technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $6.31 a bushel. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid support at $5.90 a bushel. First resistance is seen at $6.22 and then at $6.31. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.09 and then at $6.05.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.

DECEMBER OATS

December oats closed down 7 1/2 cents at $2.66 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh four-week low today. Some near-term chart damage has occurred recently. Prices have seen a downside “breakout” from a rare and potentially bearish broadening pattern on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.76. Bears’ next downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $2.58. First resistance lies at $2.70 and then at $2.72. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.64 and then at $2.62.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0.

wyckof519.jpg