Dear rss free blog,
There is a
theory about that Greece and
Portugal
are normal European countries. They aren’t. Greece keeps electing members of
the half-American left-leaning Papandreou family to run the country because
they represent continuity in a place that was riven by post-World War II shocks like
repossession of territory from Turkey; an attempted Communist takeover and
invasion; the monarchy abdicating; a military dictatorship; the restoration of
democracy in its homeland. Lots of demonstrations and agita. And then capping that incredible sequence of events,
the seemingly miraculous acceptance by the EU its membership application despite
what everyone knew were fudged numbers.
Portugal is not
a normal place either. It suffered similar shocks. Having had the longest
lasting fascist dictatorship in place after World War II, it overthrew this
with a revolution. Not a Tea Party Sarah-Palin-style revolution, but a real
one, with people and barricades confronting tanks and soldiers.
The
strongly left-wing uprising involved factory and farm takeovers and stripped the
country’s elite from their property. Many fled to Brazil. Portugal opened its intellectual
and economic borders for the first time since the 18th century
Marques de Pombal. Its revolution entailed abandoning a colonial empire that had existed
for four centuries.
Yet post-shock,
sensible compromises were accepted and the country moved toward Europe.
The
payback for the two countries and the European Union does not come from budgets
and balance sheets. This is why European Central Bank governor Jean-Claude Trichet will not
be photographed standing with his arms crossed at George Papandreou or Jose
Socrates signs a letter of capitulation to EU demands.
An even
more grotesque scenario is also unlikely: a mano a mano between sex-starved IMF
managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Greece’s financial advisor,
himself a former IMF economist, Nobel prize-winner (and scathing IMF critic) Joe
Stiglitz.
Explanations
may be in order. Stiglitz won the economics prize in 2001 after his criticisms of
a prior French IMF managing director, Michel Camdessus, got him into hot water at the Fund. Camdessus famously was photographed with his arms crossed laying down
the law on the austerity terms Indonesia
had to accept to get financial assistance.Joe concluded that the IMF deflation and cutback
medicine during the Asian financial crisis had exacerbated it. He is now
formally an advisor to the Greek Central Bank but would probably freelance to
help the Portuguese as well. Or even the Spaniards.
Strauss-Kahn
was named managing director despite an affaire with a Bulgarian-born economist
whom he also helped find a top job. He was warned to confine his bedroom antics
with Anne Sinclair, his wedded wife. As you might have guessed, I know several of the French players and Stiglitz.
More news
for paid subscribers follows about our company picks:
*Orascom (ORA) a US share controlled by an Israeli
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may have to be further costly technical fixes. ORA is a bonus share because it
is incorporated in Nevada, not Israel.
