Financial (XLF) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) whipsawed below its 200-day SMA.

Utilities (XLU) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 months.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back below its 200-day SMA.

The stock market failed to capitalize on Friday’s burst of bullish enthusiasm, as most indexes finished slightly lower on Monday. Once again, the market looks like it may be losing bullish momentum and, therefore, could be vulnerable.

On the positive side, the trend obviously is up now, with higher highs in all time frames. The stock market’s ability to claw back most of its early losses is a sign of resilience. The bullish majority appears to be buying on minor price dips, which have been brief and shallow, with none as large as 2% over the past 7 weeks.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,344.33) is near the highs of July and May, 2011, and it is probable that it will encounter resistance near those highs, plus or minus a few percentage points.

The latest sentiment data indicates general optimism and bullish complacency. When the majority of investors has been bullish for some time, we assume that the bulls are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Investors Intelligence Sentiment: There were 70.2% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 29.8% Bears, according to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors reported on 2/1/11. This represents modestly above average level of bullish sentiment: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.5% and the mean is 69.0%.

AAII Sentiment: There were 44% Bulls and 25% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 2/2/11. That was a moderate decline in mood from the 1/5/12 reading, 49% Bulls and 17% Bears, which was 1.3 standard deviations more optimistic than the 20-year average.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 6 months on 2/3/12, hitting 16.10 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1349.31, Fibonacci 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1347.00, high of 7/21/11

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.54, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/1/12, turning technically neutral again. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 115.55, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 120.91, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) retreated near but held above its 50-day SMA on 2/3/12. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 104.00, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.49 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/6/12 and remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/19/12 but remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks on 2/1/12, confirming a downside correction. UUP fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/11, turning technically neutral. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.93, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.18, 22.41, 22.46, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) remains neutral, above its 50-day SMA but below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 2/2/12. USO is neutral, below its 50-day SMA but above its 200-day SMA. Support 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 2/6/12, suggesting a minor pullback. GLD rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term uptrend. GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 1/10/12. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 167.05, 160.29, 159.68, 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 171.23, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 1/24/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. GDX/GLD remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term uptrend. SLV rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12. SLV remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 32.02, 30.67, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 33.45, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/6/12, confirming a short-term uptrend. SLV/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV/GLD fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back below its 200-day SMA on 2/6/12 and remains technically neutral. Longer term, JJC’s 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.00% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
2.23% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
0.97% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
6.03% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.92% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.87% , WAG , WALGREEN
0.28% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.29% , NBR , NABORS
0.90% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
0.81% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.14% , GOOG , Google
0.89% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
0.96% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
0.78% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
1.19% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.79% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
1.58% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
0.75% , FDX , FEDEX
0.35% , SNA , SNAP ON
0.64% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
0.27% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
0.47% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
0.73% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
0.20% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.26% , NCR , NCR
0.92% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
1.45% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
0.30% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
0.07% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
0.64% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.97% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.34% , LLY , ELI LILLY

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.08% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-4.64% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.80% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-5.40% , HUM , HUMANA
-0.28% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.59% , SYY , SYSCO
-0.77% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-1.93% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.83% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-0.42% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-2.21% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-3.04% , MON , MONSANTO
-3.67% , CSX , CSX
-1.16% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.52% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-1.67% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.41% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-3.44% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-0.56% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.63% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.70% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.34% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-0.68% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-1.05% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-0.39% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.41% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-1.42% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-1.61% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-0.90% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY
-1.02% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-0.97% , INTU , INTUIT
-2.18% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-1.62% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.92% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.20% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.19% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.10% Energy DJ, IYE
1.00% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.81% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.68% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.64% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.49% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.45% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.32% Networking, IGN
0.28% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.27% Energy Global, IXC
0.26% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.21% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.16% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.10% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.08% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.05% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.05% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.03% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.01% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.01% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.01% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.02% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.04% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.05% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.06% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.06% Austria Index, EWO
-0.06% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.06% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.07% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.07% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.07% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.08% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.08% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.09% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.10% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.10% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.12% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.13% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.13% Global 100, IOO
-0.14% Dividend International, PID
-0.15% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.15% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.16% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.16% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.16% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.19% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.20% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.21% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.21% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.21% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.21% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.24% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.25% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.25% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.25% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.26% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.26% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.27% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.27% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.28% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.28% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.29% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.29% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.30% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.31% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.31% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.32% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.33% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.33% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.33% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.33% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.34% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.36% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.37% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.37% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.38% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.39% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.39% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.40% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.40% Germany Index, EWG
-0.41% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.42% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.43% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.45% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.48% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.48% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.49% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.50% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.52% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.54% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.55% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.55% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.55% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.55% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.55% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.56% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.57% Water Resources, PHO
-0.58% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.58% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.59% Canada Index, EWC
-0.59% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.62% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.62% Australia Index, EWA
-0.63% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.64% Russia MV, RSX
-0.66% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.69% India PS, PIN
-0.70% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.77% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.80% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.81% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.83% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.85% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.88% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.92% France Index, EWQ
-0.93% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.94% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.03% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.05% Spain Index, EWP
-1.14% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.16% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.20% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.32% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.38% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.53% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.56% Italy Index, EWI
-1.67% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.93% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.08% Indonesia MV, IDX