The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,204.42) fell 14.47 points or 1.19% on Thursday, September 1, 2011. SPX fell below the previous day’s low as the game suddenly changed back to risk-averse from risk-on for the short term.

Yesterday, I wrote, “After the bounce over the past 8 trading days, which has recovered a normal fraction (about half) of the July-August plunge, the stock market might be overbought on a short-term trading basis and, therefore, due for a setback.”

Minor price consolidations and corrections against the trend are normal and expected. Playing minor counter trend bounces is risky, however. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag.

We keep in mind that the dominant trend remains persistently bearish. That is the bias. In a bear market, surprises come to the downside.

Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs and Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings.
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Stock Market Indicators

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio turned down on 9/1/11 as the game suddenly changed back to risk-averse from risk-on for the short term. Absolute price also turned down. Closing price broke down below 10-month closing price lows on 8/19/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains bearish. The EEM/SPY Ratio has been in a downtrend since peaking on 10/14/10. EEM/SPY broke down below 6-month lows on 8/25/11, remains below its 50- and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11 and broke down below 13-month lows on 8/8/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains bearish. The EFA/SPY Ratio broke down below 6-year lows on 8/30/11. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11 and broke down below 11-month lows on 8/8/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks on 8/31/11, confirming a minor downtrend. Longer term, OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, confirming a bearish major trend.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains bearish for the major trend. IWM/SPY fell below 11-month lows on 8/22/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains bearish for the major trend. MDY/SPY fell below 11-month lows on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 40.9% Bulls versus 36.6% Bears as of 8/31/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio was 1.12, down from 1.23 the previous week. The 20-year median is 1.56 and the mean is 1.64.

VIX Fear Index rose to 48.00 on 8/8/11, its highest level in 14 months, since 5/21/10. VIX is in an uptrend, and it is possible for VIX to rise much higher: VIX was 89.53 on 10/24/08 during the financial crisis. Options players tend to grow more fearful as stock prices decline, and the trend of stock prices is down. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,204.42) fell 14.47 points or 1.19% on Thursday, September 1, 2011. SPX fell 5.68% for the month of August.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1234.56, low of 8/3/11
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1230.71, high of 8/31/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1101.54, low of 8/9/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) formed an Outside Day Reversal (lower low and higher high) with a strong close near the high on 9/1/11. That could suggest an uptrend for the short term. Longer term, TLT rose above the highs of the previous 2 years on 8/18/11, confirming a major uptrend. Although minor price consolidations and corrections are to be expected in bullish price trends, the dominant trend remains bullish. Support 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 112.14, 116.92, and 123.15.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) turned down on 9/1/11 as the game suddenly changed back to risk-averse from risk-on for the short term. JNK/LQD fell below 2-year lows and below its 50-, and 200-day simple moving averages on 8/10/11, confirming a bearish major trend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 10-month lows on 8/24/11. TIP/IEF has been weak since peaking on 4/8/11 and remains below 3 key SMAs, of 20, 50, and 200 days. This means fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. Fixed-income investors are not worried about inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 2 weeks on 9/1/11, possibly suggesting a minor uptrend for the short term. The trend has been sideways since the low of 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 20.84. Resistance 21.41, 21.74, 21.86, and 22.21.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 9/1/11, breaking a minor short-term uptrend. On 8/9/11, DBA traded below 8-month lows, confirming a long-term downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) formed a Doji Candlestick on 9/1/11, possibly suggesting a loss of upside momentum for the short term. Oil fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 8/9/11, confirming a major downtrend. Support 33.69, 33.25, 32.24, 31.45, 30.31, 26.28, 22.74. Resistance 34.76, 35.14, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned choppy and corrective since 8/22/11 and looks uncertain for the short term. Gold rose above all-time highs on 8/22/11, confirming its major long-term uptrend. Although minor price consolidations and corrections are to be expected in any trend, the dominant trend remains persistently bullish. In a world of too much debt, weak currencies, and self-serving politicians running amok, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only forever-true money. Support: 165.88. 159.68, 156.11, 154.10, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 184.82.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above 4-week highs on 9/1/11, confirming a minor rally attempt for the short term. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) turned choppy and corrective since 8/22/11 and looks uncertain for the short term. Silver rose above 3-month highs on 8/22/11, confirming a medium-term price uptrend. Support 38.05, 36.04, 35.29, 34.02, and 31.97. Resistance: 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 9/1/11, breaking a minor short-term uptrend. JJC fell below the lows of the previous 8 months on 8/10/11, confirming a more significant downtrend. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook, while strength in Copper suggests confidence. Support 52.88, 50.59, and 49.00. Resistance: 54.94, 56.64, 57.48, 59.06, 60.04, and 61.69.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
20.18% , CIEN.O , CIENA
0.98% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
5.08% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
0.26% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
0.36% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
0.91% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.20% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
1.51% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.99% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.64% , AZO , AUTOZONE
0.72% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.81% , HES , AMERADA HESS
0.69% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
0.96% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
0.90% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.57% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.51% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
0.63% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.70% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
1.25% , WAG , WALGREEN
3.23% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.52% , EL , Estee Lauder
0.40% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
0.25% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
0.47% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
0.32% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
0.19% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.24% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.06% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.30% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.67% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.32% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-1.61% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-2.04% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-2.23% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-4.87% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-1.32% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-1.21% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.06% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-1.73% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.98% , TJX , TJX
-2.69% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-2.97% , GPS , GAP
-1.85% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-3.25% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-3.49% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-1.64% , IGV , Software, IGV
-0.83% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-8.08% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.90% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.39% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-3.01% , KEY , KEYCORP
-0.61% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-3.29% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
-0.90% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
-2.44% , TXN , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
-0.66% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-2.54% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-2.38% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.52% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-1.02% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.68% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.81% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.90% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.72% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.63% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.57% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.49% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.23% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.18% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
0.17% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.11% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.08% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.00% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.08% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.10% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.12% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.13% Canada Index, EWC
-0.19% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.27% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.29% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.36% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.36% Russia MV, RSX
-0.37% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.40% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.44% Dividend International, PID
-0.46% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.48% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.48% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.49% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.52% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.54% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.54% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.55% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.57% Networking, IGN
-0.61% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.65% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.66% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.66% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.66% Energy Global, IXC
-0.66% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.69% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.70% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.70% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.70% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.72% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.76% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.79% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.80% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.83% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.83% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.87% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.91% Global 100, IOO
-0.91% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.91% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.91% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.93% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.93% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.94% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.98% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.98% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.00% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.00% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.01% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.02% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.02% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.02% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.03% Australia Index, EWA
-1.04% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.05% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.05% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.08% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.08% India PS, PIN
-1.09% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.10% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.13% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.14% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.16% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.16% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.20% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.20% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.21% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.22% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.23% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.23% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.23% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.24% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.27% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.32% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.36% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.38% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.38% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.40% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.42% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.44% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.44% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.45% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.46% France Index, EWQ
-1.47% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.48% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.50% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.50% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.53% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.53% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.56% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.57% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.60% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.62% Italy Index, EWI
-1.63% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.64% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.67% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.68% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.68% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.72% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.73% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.76% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.79% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.86% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.87% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.90% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.99% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.99% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.02% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.04% Austria Index, EWO
-2.08% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.14% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.15% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-2.17% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.23% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.23% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.24% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.30% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.34% Spain Index, EWP
-2.38% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.49% Germany Index, EWG
-2.50% Water Resources, PHO
-2.54% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.62% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.62% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.63% Financial Services DJ, IYG