The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) and the S&P Mid Cap Index 400 ETF (MDY) absolute prices both rose to new highs on 1/21/14 and remain systematically bullish.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 1/21/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/21/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/21/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/21/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose to a new high on 1/21/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/21/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Utilities (XLU) stock sector ETF absolute price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/21/14, when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,843.80), up 0.28%, absolute price opened with an upside gap but reversed to the downside after 6 minutes. By 12:08 pm ET, SPX had fallen below intraday lows of the previous 3 trading days. An afternoon rally saved the day for the Bulls, however. The S&P 500 closed below the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing prices of previous trading day.
NYSE total volume rose 3% to a level 7% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 378 on Monday, but still that was down from the year-to-date high of 439 set on Wednesday 1/15/14. These numbers are still far below peaks above 800 in 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to higher highs for the large-capitalization stock price indexes.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 continue to lag the price index itself. Both were unable to rise above their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 1/21/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/21/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 1/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. More recently, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/21/14 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/7/14 by crossing above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/15/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. USO remains below both 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.07, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/17/14 when it whipsawed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 122.32, 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/21/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, but SLV has held up better then GLD since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.64% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
4.34% , ZION , ZIONS
6.78% , AA , ALCOA
9.36% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
3.47% , KEY , KEYCORP
0.08% , IGV , Software, IGV
4.78% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
3.48% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
2.14% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.71% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
0.54% , CR , CRANE
2.57% , GPS , GAP
2.74% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
5.88% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
2.39% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
4.18% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
1.85% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
1.55% , RAI , Reynolds American
4.13% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
0.51% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.71% , EIX , EDISON INTL
2.10% , EXC , EXELON CORP
2.04% , ALTR , ALTERA
4.38% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
2.24% , NCR , NCR
0.43% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
0.79% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
0.59% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.58% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
0.29% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.78% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
1.47% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
0.43% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.84% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-5.04% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-2.09% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-3.60% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-1.87% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-1.74% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-3.54% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-1.34% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-0.35% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.67% , TJX , TJX
-1.33% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-1.68% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-1.54% , TER , TERADYNE
-1.75% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-2.00% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-1.67% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-2.15% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
-1.56% , SNA , SNAP ON
-2.44% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-2.28% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-1.74% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.19% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.71% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.36% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-1.41% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-0.05% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.16% , LB , L Brands, LB
-1.73% , TGT , TARGET
-1.47% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.11% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-0.61% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.30% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
-3.41% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.14% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.13% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.10% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.02% , Networking, IGN
1.02% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.00% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.91% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.90% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.89% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.88% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.88% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.88% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.87% , Italy Index, EWI
0.83% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.83% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.82% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.82% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.77% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.76% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.73% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.72% , Dividend International, PID
0.71% , France Index, EWQ
0.71% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.71% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.70% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.67% , Australia Index, EWA
0.66% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.63% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.63% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.62% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.61% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.60% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.59% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.59% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.58% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.58% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.57% , Germany Index, EWG
0.56% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.56% , Canada Index, EWC
0.56% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.55% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.55% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.55% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.54% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.53% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.52% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.52% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.51% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.50% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.50% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.49% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.49% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.49% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.48% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.48% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.48% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.43% , Energy Global, IXC
0.42% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.41% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.39% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.39% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.38% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.37% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.36% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.36% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.35% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.33% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.30% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.30% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.29% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.28% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.28% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.28% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.28% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.27% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.27% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.27% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.26% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.26% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.25% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.24% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.24% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.23% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.23% , India PS, PIN
0.22% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.22% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.21% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.17% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.16% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.14% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.13% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.13% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.13% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.13% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.12% , Global 100, IOO
0.11% , Water Resources, PHO
0.10% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.09% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.08% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.08% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.08% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.05% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.02% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.05% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.09% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.09% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.11% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.13% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.14% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.15% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.17% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.19% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.21% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.21% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.22% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.23% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.24% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.28% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.29% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.30% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.30% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.32% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.33% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.33% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.35% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.61% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.71% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.73% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.77% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.02% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.07% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.21% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.74% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.09% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1850.84, low of 1/15/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1809.04, 50-day SMA
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1697.40, 200-day SMA
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
