Every time I sit down to write a weekly piece on the markets, I usually spend some energy hitting the desk as I struggle for ideas. Some weeks are easier than others; gifts from the Federal Reserve and market volatility are always welcome. My respect for daily and weekly columnists has grown enormously, with the exception of sportswriters who don’t check their facts.
This is one of those weeks where I find myself pounding the desk a few more times in frustration. We are at the end of the quarter, Fedspeak is light, and outside influence appears to be minor this week. We do have the employment and jobs data this week grabbing a bit of our attention.
I don’t think many observers are expecting this week’s jobs data to have much influence on the next Fed meeting in October. It will still be watched closely to see if there is any data indicating a change in current economic conditions. I’m not looking for big fireworks but a little volatility is possible.
In a very short term trade, I am looking at a strangle (buying a call and put at the same time) to play a move after Friday’s jobs data. I am trying to buy the October E-Mini S&P 500 1860-1925 strangle at 8 points ($400.00). I am setting an initial target exit at 25 points. These options will expire on Friday at 3:00 PM CDT, so if we don’t hit our target be prepared to exit before the close on Friday. Risk is limited to the cost of entry plus fees and commissions.
For those interested Walsh Trading is holding our weekly grain webinar Friday October 2nd, at 2:00 PM Central time hosted by our Senior Grain analyst Tim Hannagan. Tim has been ranked #1 by Reuters and Bloomberg in 2011 and 2012 for his most accurate end of year price predictions for soybeans and corn. Registration is free and if you cannot attend live, a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.