Another one bites the dust – another record high, that is. It’s become almost a daily occurrence. The $100 record for a barrel of crude oil – and lots of bets on $200 crude – and the move in gold above $900 an ounce have been well publicized.
Now, in the aftermath of the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports Friday, corn and the soybean complex are getting in on the act, following the path of wheat, which set its record above $10 a bushel in December.
How many chances have farmers ever had to sell corn futures above $5 a bushel? I can only recall one other time in 1996. And they have never had another opportunity to sell soybean futures above $13 as they have the last few days. Finally, beans in the teens, long after that that chant began when prices hit the previous record of $12.90 a bushel briefly in June 1973 when most farmers had no soybeans left to sell at the time.
But are the highs in after Monday’s price action? Is it time to go short these markets? History suggests yes, jump on this opportunity. So do the daily candlestick charts for 2008 soybean futures, where Friday’s action looks like a big shooting star, a bearish formation.
But are we in a monumental turning period in history where old price levels no longer apply, just as happened in the 1970s? This does appear to be a new demand era, with corn for ethanol acting as the catalyst and creating another major battle for acres for the 2008 crop. This battle is far from resolved and appears capable of continuing to keep the drive going for 2008-crop futures.
In short, it won’t be easy to go short in a falling-knife situation, but a drop below $12.50 in March soybean futures would create a tempting VantagePoint medium-term downside crossover.