Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

Even though it is the peak of the hurricane season in the Tropical Atlantic, readers of our energy reports know that we have been turning our attention to the start of the winter heating season for North America and Europe.  In addition to the Weather Trends long range winter forecast, which was already in the hands of our clients for months, there are many pieces of observational weather data that can supplement our forecast, increasing the confidence in our projections as we approach a target season.  One that I often use as an early gauge for winter season onset is a look at the snow and ice build over the higher latitudes of the norther hemisphere, as a proxy to assess the start of the winter season.  I pay particular attention to the relationship of northern snow/ice and the temperature lag over the north-central and northeastern regions of the US, which are heavy demand centers for winter heating fuel. 

The composite map below shows the ice cover as of September 9th, focusing on the areal extend of ice at the confluence of the Beaufort, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas, north of the Bering Strait.  It is still early, but there is a relatively strong correlation between early season northern hemisphere ice cover and the severity of winter in the northeastern US.  Actually, there is a stronger correlation approaching mid-latitudes, where Hudson Bay is a better precursor for winter temperatures, which is looked at more closely through October.  The notable feature on this series of maps is the contiguous ice sheet extending towards northern Canada near the center of the maps as of this date last year (2009), which is not present in 2010 or 2008.  Note that last year was an extreme winter for much of the eastern US, and the early start of the ice build was viewed as an early signal in our analysis of the 2009/10 heating season.  Again, in the coming weeks, more discussion of important weather indices will be highlighted regarding the start of winter, so feel free to contact Weather Trends if you would like to discuss these topics in more detail. 

September 9th: 2010, 2009 & 2008.