AUDUSD: The RBA left its interest rate unchanged at 4.75%, as expected, and said that the nation’s growth pace may be weaker than forecast, keeping the currency lower. RBA Governor Stevens said that inflation is expected to be near the 2% – 3% target next year and the decision to pause rate hikes reflects slowing economic growth in Asia and EU, dimming prospects for jobs in the nation.
Also, Australia’s trade surplus was the widest in seven months as mining industry fueled recovery from the worst contraction in 20 years as trade surplus increased to $2.33 Billion versus surplus $1.9 Billion.
We expect a range for today in AUDUSD rate of 1.0630 to 1.0730 (We continued to avoid trading the pair. Those who shorted the pair should consider trial stop loss to 1.0730 and target further toward 1.0630)
EURUSD:Â The euro was down a bit versus other majors on Tuesday, stung by disappointing euro zone economic data and lingering sovereign debt concerns.
Despite another massive rescue forGreece, officials may have only bought more time in attempting to avoid significant restructuring of sovereign debt among the region’s more profligate borrowers.
Focus in EU has shifted to Greece’s second bailout package after it received the $12.6 Billion installment of last year’s bailout money. There are concerns over private sector participation in the debt and rating agencies have been watching progress towards this.
Asian equities remained mixed as banks declined in China after Moody’s raised concerns about bad debts as it views the credit outlook for the Chinese banking system as potentially turning to negative.
We expect a range for today in EURUSD rate of 1.4380 to 1.4450 (The pair might drop low toward 1.4380 and reverse back toward 1.4400, then sent another wave down toward 1.4330 and possible 1.4270. Those who shorted the pair should consider trial stop loss to 1.4450)
USDJPY: Trading volume of foreign exchange futures at CME Group Inc. (CME) held about steady in June as the threat of a Greek government default and U.S. economic worries created volatile market conditions.
However, prices during the month for some of the most closely watched currencies failed to break from their trading ranges, which may have capped trading activity.
CME lists the most active forex futures contracts, considered a key growth area for the company, but it faces increasing competition for exchange-traded business as ICE has built a large following for futures on the U.S. dollar index. The index measures the dollar’s performance against a basket of other currencies.
ICE reported record monthly volume in June of 850,244 contracts on the U.S. dollar index. The dollar index also achieved a daily record volume of 81,814 contracts on June 9. Around that time, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke jolted financial markets when he acknowledged that the U.S. economic recovery was proceeding at a “frustratingly slow” pace.
We expect a range for today in USDJPY rate of (We are shorting the pair at the current range 81.10, stop loss at 81.60, target at 80.70 and 80.30)
