The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 4/26/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,347.24) rose 11.99 points or 0.90% on Tuesday. SPX broke out above 2-year highs, penetrating resistance at its 1344.07 intraday high of 2/18/11. The move was broadly-confirmed by the majority of indexes.
Trading volume on the NYSE rose 36% above Monday ‘s slow pace to confirm the price breakout.
Many momentum indicators based on various stock price indexes remain below their highs of 2/18/11 and continue to lag the indexes themselves. But note that these negative momentum divergences have not been any help lately.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above 6-week highs on 4/26/11, reconfirming a short-term uptrend.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell further below the lows of the previous 16 months on 4/26/11, again reconfirming a long-term, major downtrend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
10.69% , ASH , ASHLAND
1.41% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
7.57% , CMI , CUMMINS
8.37% , WAT , WATERS
5.52% , HUM , HUMANA
4.64% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
4.15% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
0.91% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
4.63% , PWER , POWER ONE
6.10% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
1.22% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
3.50% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
4.95% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
0.86% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
2.69% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
0.98% , SWH , Software H, SWH
2.40% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
3.33% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
1.93% , MMM , 3M
5.31% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
1.88% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.45% , PKI , PERKINELMER
2.41% , DELL , DELL
2.15% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
1.58% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.51% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
0.82% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
3.34% , MOLX , MOLEX
0.95% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
1.26% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
2.00% , PLL , PALL
2.41% , DE , DEERE & CO
3.29% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-13.16% , UIS , UNISYS
-12.35% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-14.44% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-9.09% , TLAB , TELLABS
-4.07% , X , US STEEL CORP
-1.97% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-3.87% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-2.37% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-2.20% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-2.78% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
-7.68% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-2.77% , MAS , MASCO
-3.66% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-1.51% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-1.34% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-0.50% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-4.35% , AN , AUTONATION
-1.95% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.68% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-3.74% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-1.20% , KO , COCA COLA
-1.41% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-1.80% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.09% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-1.11% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-2.14% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-1.57% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-1.16% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-2.00% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.97% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.62% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-1.01% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-1.91% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been consolidating gains since 4/5/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price has been consolidating gains since 4/6/11. Support 77.92, 75.18, 72.85, 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 80.97, 83.27, and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) has been consolidating gains since 4/4/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above previous 2-year highs on 4/26/11. Support 37.39, 36.24, 35.08, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 39.0, and 39.97.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) ) has been consolidating gains since 4/5/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price has been consolidating gains since 4/6/11. Support 38.44, 38.06, 36.44, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 41.28, 43.04, 45.21, 45.21, and 46.54.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below 2-week lows on 4/26/11. Longer term, the Ratio has been consolidating gains since 11/26/10. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 4/26/11. Support 38.90, 38.46, 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 40.13 and 40.70.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) remains neutral based on moving average relationships, with the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price remains bullish. Support 32.57, 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 34.71, 36.61, and 37.89.
Technology (XLK) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 13-month lows on 4/5/11. The Ratio gave a clear bearish signal on 3/22/11 when the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK peaked on 2/18/11 and remains neutral. Support 25.20, 24.87, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 26.66, 27.09, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) remains neutral, based on moving average relationships, with the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 12-year highs on 4/26/11 and remains bullish. Support 29.64, 28.71, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance: none.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) crossed back below its 50-day SMA on 4/21/11, turning neutral. Absolute price remains neutral. Support 31.35, 31.20, 30.74, 30.53, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.89, 33.00, 34.89, and 36.24.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 4/26/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price fell below 3-week lows on 4/18/11 and remains neutral. Support 15.79, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.75, 16.85, 17.20, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has been consolidating gains since 1/18/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 4/26/11, reconfirming a bullish major trend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 28-year lows on 4/21/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above all-time highs on 4/5/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above all-time highs on 4/5/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price eased modestly lower on 4/26/11. Although uncertain for the short-term trend, longer term trends remain bullish. Support 105.98, 105.31, 102.70, 97.02, 96.22, 95.14, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 113.46, 114.05, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.
Gold nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 4/26/11 before recovering a good fraction of that loss by the close. Gold could be signaling exhaustion and profit taking. Gold rose above all-time highs on 4/25/11, again reconfirming its major uptrend. Support 1445.0, 1411.5, 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1519.2.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) is bearish. It crossed below the 50-day SMA on 4/15/11, remains below the 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.
Silver nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 2 trading days on 4/26/11, possibly signaling exhaustion and profit taking. Silver rose above 31-year highs on 4/25/11, reconfirming a bullish major trend. Support 39.70, 39.12, 37.08, 36.43, 33.565, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 49.82 and 50.35.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 27-year highs on 4/25/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price closed below the low of the previous trading day on 4/25/11, possibly signaling a short-term price pullback. Still, Copper appears to be in an intermediate-term consolidation since peaking at 4.6575 on 2/15/11. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 4.212, 4.076, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.533, 4.554, 4.6495, and 4.6575.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above 6-week highs on 4/26/11, reconfirming a short-term uptrend. The Bond could be building an intermediate-term bullish base since the low of 2/9/11. In its favor, nearly everyone has been talking bearish on Bonds this year, so the Bond could be oversold. Support 120.20, 119.15, 117.28, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 123.22, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been stuck in a neutral trading range most of the time since JNK peaked at 40.94 on 11/4/10.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has eased lower after rising above 2-year highs on 4/8/11. The Ratio had been in a rising trend from 8/24/10 to 4/8/11, reflecting fixed-income investors’ preference for inflation-protected TIPs over the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF).
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell further below the lows of the previous 16 months on 4/26/11, again reconfirming a long-term, major downtrend. Support 70.80. Resistance 76.055, 76.87, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 57.3% Bulls versus 15.7% Bears as of 4/6/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio soared to 3.65, up from 2.23 the previous week. The Ratio rose its highest level in the 8 years since the 20-year high of 3.74 set on 6/18/03. Following that 2003 peak, the stock market turned sideways/choppy for 2 months and sentiment reverted toward the mean. The Ratio’s 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.56, and the mean is 1.63. According to Humphrey B. Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking, when everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.
VIX Fear Index fell below its 3-year range on 4/20/11, hitting 14.30 intraday, and again confirming a preexisting trend toward bullish complacency. This follows a brief spike up to an intraday peak of 31.28 on 3/16/11. Fear was short-lived. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 4/26/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,347.24) rose 11.99 points or 0.90% on Tuesday. SPX broke out above 2-year highs, penetrating resistance at its 1344.07 intraday high of 2/18/11. The move was broadly-confirmed by the majority of indexes.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1294.70, low of 4/18/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.92% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.88% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.84% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.64% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.61% Belgium Index, EWK
1.58% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.46% Germany Index, EWG
1.40% South Africa Index, EZA
1.36% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.31% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.26% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.26% Italy Index, EWI
1.20% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.19% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.18% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.17% Spain Index, EWP
1.17% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.16% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.15% France Index, EWQ
1.12% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.12% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.11% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.08% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.07% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.07% Energy DJ, IYE
1.06% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.06% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.05% Water Resources, PHO
1.05% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.04% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.04% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.02% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.01% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.01% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.00% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.99% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.98% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.97% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.96% India PS, PIN
0.96% Sweden Index, EWD
0.96% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.96% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.95% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.94% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.94% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.93% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.93% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.92% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.91% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.91% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.90% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.90% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.90% European VIPERs, VGK
0.90% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.90% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.90% Global 100, IOO
0.88% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.88% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.88% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.88% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.87% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.86% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.86% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.86% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.86% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.86% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.84% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.84% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.84% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.83% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.82% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.81% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.80% Mexico Index, EWW
0.80% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.78% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.78% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.77% EAFE Index, EFA
0.77% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.77% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.77% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.77% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.76% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.75% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.74% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.74% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.69% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.68% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.66% Dividend International, PID
0.64% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.63% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.63% Singapore Index, EWS
0.62% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.62% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.62% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.62% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.56% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.56% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.56% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.53% Australia Index, EWA
0.53% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.52% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.52% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.50% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.50% Energy Global, IXC
0.49% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.47% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.47% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.46% Austria Index, EWO
0.43% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.40% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.37% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.34% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.34% South Korea Index, EWY
0.33% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.31% China 25 iS, FXI
0.30% Canada Index, EWC
0.27% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.23% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.23% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.22% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.20% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.20% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.18% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.18% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.11% Japan Index, EWJ
0.10% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.05% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.05% Russia MV, RSX
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.07% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.08% Networking, IGN
-0.11% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.13% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.15% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.16% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.33% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.35% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.58% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.77% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-3.93% Silver Trust iS, SLV
