* Latest Market Developments *

(Follow me on Twitter: @jimwyckoff)

Early Thursday found much of the market place subdued ahead of the much-anticipated monthly meeting of the European Central Bank. Recent dour economic data coming out of the EU, and Japan’s recent monetary stimulus, suggest the ECB will move to enact more monetary stimulus sooner rather than later. Some had reckoned the ECB would make a move as soon as today, but most did not expect the ECB to make a major move at this meeting. As usual, ECB chief Mario Draghi’s press conference will be closely monitored for clues on future ECB monetary policy action.

The Russian ruble hit a new record low versus the U.S. dollar overnight. Slumping crude oil prices and crippling economic sanctions against Russia have sunk the ruble.

The two key “outside markets” find the U.S. dollar index under some profit-taking pressure after hitting a four-year high on Wednesday. Crude oil prices are slightly lower and hovering near a three-year low.

Traders and investors are also awaiting arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month: Friday’s October employment report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up around 230,000 in October.

(Note: Follow me on Twitter–@jimwyckoff–for breaking market news.)

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job cuts report, and ICSC chain store sales trends.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (Geopolitical risks have been moved to the back burner of the market place…for now.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading and hovering close to this week’s record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 2,020.50 and then at 2,035.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 2,003.75 and then at this week’s low of 1,995.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early trading and not far below this week’s 14-year high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 4,150.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,174.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 4,118.00 and then at 4,100.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a record high on Wednesday. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at the record high of 17,415 and then at 17,450. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 17,335 and then at 17,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 141 16/32 and then at this week’s high of 141 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 141 even and then at 140 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.15.0 and then at this week’s high of 126.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.08.0 and then at this week’s low of 125.30.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading and seeing profit taking after hitting a contract and four-year high on Wednesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.645 and then at the contract high of 87.720. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.230 and then at this week’s low of 86.975. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower. Prices Tuesday hit a three-year low. Bears remain in solid near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $79.35 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $77.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures markets were lower in overnight trading as the bulls are fading. The grain market bulls need to show fresh power very soon to keep their fledgling price uptrends in place. Traders will closely scrutinize today’s weekly USDA export sales report. They will also keep a close eye on the important “outside markets”—crude oil and the U.S. dollar index—which have lately been staying in the bearish camp.