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Daily State of the Markets |
Good morning. At first blush, it appears that stocks simply stalled out in front of the Thanksgiving holiday yesterday. After a nice rebound on Monday, it was completely normal to see some giveback on Tuesday and given the final tally, the bulls were able to go home happy. And speaking of going home, in light of the fact that it’s been an exhausting year and that most managers and hedge funds are enjoying solid returns at this stage of the game, going home early may have been the primary theme of the day.
However, from a big picture standpoint, we are of the mind that yesterday’s session was indicative of the overall environment. With the S&P and NASDAQ having been unable to break on through to the other side of resistance, it appears that the bulls are currently searching for reassurance that it is okay to push higher. But unfortunately, with the market having popped up more than 6% so far this month and more than 64% from the March lows, even the most ardent bulls aren’t sure they’ve got the green light for yet another jaunt higher.
It is safe to say that the recent run for the roses will come to a close at some point. Early this summer, we began arguing that the market was in the process of discounting the end of the recession and would soon move on to discounting the strength of the recovery. We also opined that since Wall Street tends to overdo moves in both directions (ala the 1999 tech bubble and more recently, the 25% tank-job from January through March 9th), we thought we might see things get a little carried away to the upside before this “mini bull” comes to a conclusion. And frankly, given that it appears that “performance anxiety” and the dollar-carry trade seem to be the driving forces at this stage, we just might be seeing things becoming just a little overdone at the present time.
This is not to say that the market can’t go higher. We’re simply suggesting that the bulls might need some reassurance before embarking on another meaningful leg higher.
In our humble opinion, the past couple of sessions have been a pretty good example of this point. Stocks started to blast into new-high territory (for this cycle) on Monday but the bulls were stopped in their tracks by a report from Standard & Poor’s reminding traders of the big-picture risks in the banking system. Then yesterday, it looked like the bears might have grabbed the ball until the 5-year note auction produced results that fell into the “wow” category and the FOMC minutes reminded investors that things are improving in the economy.
So, will the bulls find the reassurance they are seeking soon enough to keep our furry friends at bay into the end of the year? Or will we need to go through a period of backing and filling while waiting for the data to support higher prices? Or will the animal spirits take over and simply blast this thing higher into New Year’s Eve? From where we sit, these are the questions that need to be answered at the moment.
Turning to this morning, we’ve got a boatload of economic data to sift through before traders begin squaring positions and head out the door.
First up, orders for goods lasting more than three years fell by -0.6% in October, which was well below the expectations for an increase of +0.5% and September’s revised gains of +2.0%. When you strip out transportations, orders for Durable Goods fell by -1.3% versus expectations for +0.7% and September’s reading of +1.8%. Next, Personal Income for the month of October came in at +0.2%; above the consensus for a reading of +0.1% and the September’s revised reading of +0.2%. On the other side of the equation, Personal Spending for October grew by +0.7%; also above the expectations for +0.5% and September’s revised drop of -0.6%. The Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) grew by +0.2%; above the consensus for +0.1%. The PCE Deflator (a measure of inflation on a year-over-year basis) was reported at +1.4%; well above the expectations for +0.4%.
Finally, Initial Claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending November 21st were reported at 466K; below the expectations for a reading of 500K and last week’s total of 505K. Continuing Claims for the week ending November 14th were 5.43M vs. 5.56M and last week’s revised total of 5.61M. Also note that this was the first time that Initial Claims were under 500K since January 3rd of this year.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the foreign markets are higher across the board. Crude futures are higher with the latest quote showing oil trading up by $0.30 to $76.32. On the interest rate front, we’ve got the yield on the 10-yr trading at 3.33%, while the yield on the 3-month T-Bill is currently at 0.01%. In addition, gold is up $14.40 and the dollar is lower. Finally, with about 45 minutes before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are pointing to a higher open. The Dow futures are currently ahead by about 50 points; the S&P’s are up about 5 points, while the NASDAQ looks to be about 12 points above fair value at the moment.
| Earnings Before The Bell | |||
Company |
Symbol |
EPS |
Reuters Estimate |
| Deere & Company | DE | $0.23 | $0.02 |
| Tiffany’s | TIF | $0.33 | $0.23 |
Wall Street Research Summary
Upgrades:
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) – Initiated buy at Citi Staples (SPLS) – Mentioned positively at Deutsche Bank Blackstone Group (BX) – Mentioned positively at Goldman Microsoft (MSFT) – Mentioned positively at Goldman, ISI Group Ashland (ASH) – Estimates and target increased at JP Morgan
Micron Technology (MU) – Removed from S.T. Buy list at UBS NRG Energy (NRG) – UBS
Long positions in stocks mentioned: GS, MSFT
* Report includes items that make comparisons to the consensus estimate questionable
Enjoy a Happy Thanksgiving and until next time, “may the bulls be with you!”
David D. Moenning
Founder TopStockPortfolios.com
For more “top stock” portfolios and research, visit TopStockPortfolios.com
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