Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research
Many readers are well aware of the pain felt among Indian sugarcane producers last year as the poor start (and middle) of last season’s monsoon translated to a poor crop, forcing domestic imports for the first time in three years. As a result, raw sugar prices on the world market doubled, moving from 14 cents/# to 28 cents/# in one year’s time. Looking ahead, while we are not anticipating a recovery to a normal rainfall distribution for the season, we are at least seeing conditions that point to a better onset period. Last year’s onset was delayed, and rains did not really pick up until later in the season. While some other shorter crop cycle products were able to substitute, this is not the case for sugarcane, and the impact on production and yields was significant. For 2010, we are seeing a better start to the season – the map below on the left depicts the monthly precipitation totals, and the map on the right shows the WTI forecast precip vs. that observed last year.
While the onset does look favorable for this year’s sugarcane crop, we are cautious when looking at the rainfall pattern for July through September. The current El Nino, while not particularly strong, will still play a part in this season’s development, and there is a relationship between El Nino years and dryness over the Indian subcontinent. However, we do expect a better start to the season, so at a minimum, sugar agricultural production will benefit from early rains….regarding a recovery in the Indian crop as a whole, we are looking towards 2011.
