Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

The first two maps below (from USDA) highlight the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, or NDVI, for sugarcane growing regions in India’s northern states; the third map (Indian Met Dept) is the seasonal monsoon totals (through 22 Sept).  We have noted that the 2010 monsoon has been beneficial for sugarcane growers in the south, supported by the favorable precipitation numbers shown below.  But the country’s largest producing state is U.P., and seasonal totals here have been short of what would be required for good numbers as we enter the 2010/11 crop year (1 Oct).  Further, the NDVI maps highlight that the overall vegetation health index is below both last year and normal in the northern regions, which will inhibit yields going forward.  As global S-D is still tight, this may have a higher level of importance for 2011 stocks, particularly in light of a potential curtailment in Brazil due to drought in the Centre-South.   

 

 

 

Please contact Weather Trends if you would like to learn more about our weather/commodities services.