Total Industrial Production fell in November by 0.2%. but was up 3.7% year over year. That is well below expectations for a 0.2% increase. October was unrevised at up 0.7% but September was revised up to unchanged from a 0.1% decline. The cause was factory output, which fell 0.4% after being up 0.5% in October (unrevised) and 0.4% in September (revised up from 0.3%. The total number is often distorted by Utilities, which can move with the weather as much as industrial output. Utility output was up 0.2% after a string of declines and is down 0.7% The third group, Mining has been doing vey well, up 6.7% year over year, but it slowed to being up just 0.1% on the month after jumping 2.1% in October.

The other part of the report is Capacity Utilization. Total utilization fell to 77.8% from 78.0$ in October, but only after it was revised up from 77.8%, so take your pick, it was either flat or up. It is up from 75.8% a year ago, and a June 2009 low of just 67.3%. The long term average is 80.4%. In other lots of progress, but we still have a ways to go, and the progress seemed to stall this month. Factor utilization fell to 75.3% from 75.6% in October, but that was revised up from 74.4%. September was also revised up by 0.4% to 75.6%. It is up from 73.1% a year ago and a June 2009 low of 64.4%.

Mine utilization was unchanged at a red hot level of 92.9%, up from 88.9% a year ago and a Recession low of 79.0%. Its long term average is 87.4%. Utility Utilization ticked up to 78.2% from 78.1% but that is actually still below the lowest point of 2009, which was 79.2% and is well below the long term average of 86.6%. In fact last month was an all time record low.

All in a all a disappointing report, but the longer term upward trend still seems intact.

Zacks Investment Research