Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this bearish signal may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.

Industrial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,433.82) recovered from early weakness to close 0.04% higher on Monday. SPX still closed below its 50-day SMA for 2nd consecutive trading day. SPX fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks around 2:00 p.m. ET. A media story, speculating about expansion of the size of the Fed’s QE bond buying, sparked a market rebound in the final hour that recovered all of the day’s loss.

NYSE trading volume fell 17% to a level 13% below the 200-day SMA. Despite modest gains in the price indexes, the volume of declining stocks was greater than the volume of advancing stocks on the NYSE, indicating that supply was greater than demand.

The SPX rally that ended on 10/5/12 resulted in a lower high than the rally that ended on 9/14/12 (the day after the Fed’s QE3 generous gift to banks), and the rally that ended on 10/18/12 resulted in a lower high than the rally that ended on 10/5/12, with each rally attempt weaker than the previous one. Failed rally attempts and 2 lower highs may lead the bullish majority to question their assumptions.
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The technical condition of the stock market does not support the excessive optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Fed and ECB plans to buy bonds in unlimited quantities (with fiat currencies printed out of thin air and backed by nothing but a theory and a hope) do not guarantee that stock prices will continue to rise, especially now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside correction seems overdue. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
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*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. TLT whipsawed back down below its 200-day SMA on 10/22/12. TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 124.78, 125.09, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. IEF has remained above its 200-day SMA since 4/5/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 106.75, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.38, 108.70, 108.99, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned bullish on 10/10/12 when the TIP/IEF 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. TIP/IEF remains above both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12, thereby turning systematically bearish. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 10/15/12. DBA turned systematically neutral on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. Price remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains well above the 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support 32.52, 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 10/19/12, suggesting a downside correction. GLD turned systematically bullish on 9/20/12, when the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12 and rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12. Support: 166.23, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bullish on 10/19/12, when the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. GDX/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 .

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. SLV price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12, and SLV crossed above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. Support 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 32.23, 33.23, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12, and SLV/GLD crossed above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this bearish signal may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
44.75% , SVU , SUPERVALU
3.27% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
4.21% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
7.05% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
4.46% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
3.68% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
1.42% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
4.11% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.64% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
0.63% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
1.69% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
0.56% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.58% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.45% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
0.68% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
1.49% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
1.52% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.48% , WAT , WATERS
2.55% , SNV , SYNOVUS
0.99% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
0.68% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.12% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.40% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
2.98% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
0.43% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.81% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
0.83% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.63% , HUM , HUMANA
1.25% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.47% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.04% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.17% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.04% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.88% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-4.38% , VFC , VF
-0.80% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-3.35% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-1.58% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-3.27% , COH , COACH
-2.71% , NCR , NCR
-0.87% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-3.57% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-0.61% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.76% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.18% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.46% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-1.32% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.29% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-1.03% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-0.99% , WPO , Washington Post
-1.10% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-0.52% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-0.42% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-2.29% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-0.79% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-1.65% , TJX , TJX
-0.70% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-1.60% , KEY , KEYCORP
-1.83% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-0.13% , VTV , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.99% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-0.56% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-0.83% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.85% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-1.45% , CR , CRANE
-1.02% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.12% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.88% South Africa Index, EZA
1.77% India PS, PIN
1.59% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.52% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.45% China 25 iS, FXI
1.42% Japan Index, EWJ
1.42% Italy Index, EWI
1.37% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.37% South Korea Index, EWY
1.35% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.25% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.21% Russia MV, RSX
1.04% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.01% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.99% Austria Index, EWO
0.96% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.95% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.95% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.94% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.89% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.88% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.87% Spain Index, EWP
0.86% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.83% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.79% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.79% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.79% Sweden Index, EWD
0.74% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.70% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.68% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.68% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.68% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.64% European VIPERs, VGK
0.63% Belgium Index, EWK
0.63% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.61% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.58% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.56% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.56% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.52% Singapore Index, EWS
0.52% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.50% France Index, EWQ
0.47% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.47% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.47% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.46% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.43% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.37% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.34% Germany Index, EWG
0.26% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.25% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.21% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.21% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.20% Australia Index, EWA
0.20% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.19% Networking, IGN
0.17% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.17% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.16% Global 100, IOO
0.15% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.12% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.11% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.10% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.08% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.07% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.07% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.06% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.06% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.06% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.04% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.02% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.01% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.00% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.00% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.00% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.01% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.02% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.02% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.03% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.03% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.04% Canada Index, EWC
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.05% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.06% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.08% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.08% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.08% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.10% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.10% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.11% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.12% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.12% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.13% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.13% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.15% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.15% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.15% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.15% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.15% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.16% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.17% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.18% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.18% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.19% Dividend International, PID
-0.20% Energy Global, IXC
-0.21% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.21% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.23% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.24% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.27% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.27% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.32% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.34% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.36% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.36% Water Resources, PHO
-0.37% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.38% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.40% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.41% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.42% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.47% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.49% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.50% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.50% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.55% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.57% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.59% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.59% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.61% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.64% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.76% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.79% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.80% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.83% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.05% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.32% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO