* Tokyo Nikkei 225 (-90.67 / -0.81%)
* Hong Kong Hang Seng (-34.64 / -0.16%)
* Australia S&P/ASX 200 (-32.70 / -0.66%)
(6:00 AM)
* UK FTSE 100 (-17.77 / -0.31%)
* France CAC 40 (-6.68 / -0.16%)
* Germany DAX (-18.43 / -0.29%)
FOREX
Yen drops as Japanese ruling party calls for a weaker currency; USD/JPY bounces to 93.40.
EUR/USD fluctuates mostly below 1.3600.
GBP/USD bounces at 1.5335 low and approaches 1.5400.
AUD/CAD suffers sharpest fall in 4 months but firms just under 0.9300.
China May Float Yuan by June 30, Avoid One-Off Revaluation, Survey Shows.
AUD/USD fluctuates around 0.925.
Rupiah Appreciates Five Times More Than Yuan as China Revalues in History.
Yuan Forwards Drop After Hu Says China to Follow Own Path on Revaluation.
(6:00 AM)
* Dollar / Yen (-0.22 to 93.02)
* Euro / Dollar (+0.0006 to 1.3597)
Looking Ahead…
Tuesday, April 13
Earnings: ATLO 0.20 CSX 0.68 FAST 0.33 HCSG 0.21 INFY 0.57 INTC 0.37 LLTC 0.39 TLB 0.02 WABC 0.79
Economic Indicator: 7:45AM Weekly retail sales.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Import Prices for March.
Economic Indicator: 9:45AM NFIB Small-Business Optimism for March.
Economic Indicator: France CPI, Germany CPI, 5:00AM EuroZone Ind’l Prod.
Wednesday, April 14
Earnings: ACGY 0.20 ADTN 0.26 ASML 0.31 SCHW 0.11 EUBK -0.65 HOFT 0.14 IGTE 0.16 JPM 0.64 LSTR 0.32 MTOX 0.01 PCBK 0.05 UFPI 0.01 GWW 1.37 YUM 0.52
Economic Indicator: 7:00AM Weekly Mortgage Applications; 10:30AM Crude Inventories.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM CPI for March.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Retail Sales for March.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM Business Inventories for February.
Economic Indicator: 7:30AM OPEC Monthly report.
Thursday, April 15
Earnings: AMD -0.10 ALNC 0.50 ATR 0.51 STST 0.24 BLX 0.40 PIR 0.31 CBK -0.27 CBSH 0.53 CBST 0.36 DTLK 0.01 FCS 0.23 GOOG 6.56 ISRG 1.68 INXI 0.00 PBCT 0.08 PPG 0.63 SFNC 0.34 SLP 0.03 TNB 0.53 TITN 0.26 VMI 0.88
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Initial Unemployment Claims; 4:30PM Money Supply.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM NY Mtfg Survey for April.
Economic Indicator: 9:00AM TICS Capital Flows for February.
Economic Indicator: 9:15AM Ind’l Prod for March.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM Philly Fed Idx for April.
Economic Indicator: 1:00PM NAHB Sentiment for April.
Friday, April 16
Earnings: ASX 0.08 BAC 0.09 CPC 0.20 EVBS 0.12 FHN -0.16 GCI 0.41 GE 0.16 GPC 0.61 KNL 0.13 LPL 0.50 MAT -0.03 MGN -0.08 BPOP -0.25 PNRG -0.25 PNRG -0.25 SBSI 0.50 UTEK 0.05 VIRC -0.16
Economic Indicator: 10:30AM Weekly Leading Index.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Housing Starts/Permits for March.
Economic Indicator: 9:55AM Univ of Mich Sent-Prel for April.
Economic Indicator: 5:00AM Eurozone CPI, European Monster Employment.
Monday, April 19
Earnings: ATX -0.01 ABCB -0.21 ACTG 0.02 AFFX -0.1 Y 3.2 AB 0.5 EPAX -0.32 AMLN -0.29 ANDS -0.17 ACI 0.08 AGO 0.79 ATHR 0.51 AUO 0.14 BOH 0.64 BBX -0.84 BJS 0.08 BSX 0.08 EPAY 0.23 BBNK -0.08 BRO 0.31 BCR 1.24 CADE -0.13 CFNB 0.29 CBKN -0.06 CCBG -0.16 CFNL 0.12 CASS 0.47 CF 1.5 CHFC 0.1 C 0 CSBC -0.18 COBZ -0.1 CNS 0.22 COLB -0.01 CNX 0.77 CLB 1.24 CR 0.52 CCK 0.28 CVBF 0.13 CYBI -0.03 DNBK 0.13 DECK 0.91 DCTH -0.14 DAL -0.23 DEL 0.1 DYAX -0.15 ECBE -0.4 LLY 1.1 ECA 0.32 WIRE 0.06 ELGX -0.02 EPIQ 0.17 EFX 0.56 ELS 1.02 EXPO 0.37 EZPW 0.43 FFKT -0.37 FISI 0.32 BUSE -0.02 FDEF 0.1 FFIN 0.61 FSGI -0.12 FWV N/A FBMI 0.05 FFIC 0.26 FELE 0.32 GHL 0.46 HAL 0.25 HNBC 0.08 HAS 0.16 HBNC 0.45 ICUI 0.41 IEX 0.42 IKAN 0.02 ILMN 0.19 IBCP N/A INSU 0.3 IDC 0.33 IBM 1.93 JJSF 0.46 JAH 0.2 JBLU 0 KMT 0.26 KLAC 0.35 NITE 0.36 KT N/A FSTR 0.26 LAB 0.08 LBAI 0.1 LRCX 0.82 LHO 0.03 LXK 0.88 LNCR 0.6 LMT 1.61 LNET -0.13 MTB 0.98 MCBC -0.57 MSFG 0.04 MCD 0.96 MMR -0.1 WFR 0.05 MPB 0.1 MBRG 0.1 MSL 0.05 MTX 0.66 MTSC 0.32 MLI 0.24 MFSF -0.07 NTY 0.93 NVR 5.68 PKG 0.11 PRK 0.91 PENN 0.22 PNFP 0.01 PBNY 0.08 PULB 0.03 QDEL -0.03 RJF 0.41 RCRC 0.13 RLRN 0.18 RNST 0.18 RBCAA 1.3 RCKY -0.19 ROME 0.12 SYBT 0.35 SCSC 0.43 SBCF -0.19 CKH 0.95 SEIC 0.27 SXT 0.46 SHBI 0.15 SIFI 0.05 BSRR 0.2 SOMH 0.09 SGB 0.18 SPF -0.06 STLD 0.26 SCL 1.32 STSA -2 SPWRA 0.07 SGC 0.22 SYMS -0.07 SYNL 0.07 TROW 0.58 TASR 0 TSH 0.79 TDY 0.61 SWK 0.52 NCTY -0.53 TOFC 0.04 TRAD 0.06 TRIB 0.12 UMBF 0.53 UBSH -0.01 UNTY -0.01 UACL 0.11 UVSP 0.12 ULGX -0.02 USG -0.94 VLY 0.18 VDSI 0.06 WERN 0.16 WAL -0.22 WMS 0.49 ZION -0.94
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM: Composite Indexes for March.
Economic Indicator: Japan Confidence.
All Times Eastern
Economics
(4/12)
OECD Global Leading Index growth rates begin to flatten out in 2010.
Treasury Budget: Mar10 -65.4B vs expected -62.0B, Mar09 -$192.3B (revised -$191.6
.
The NBER’s inability to call a recession end was a topic of conversation on Monday. The US coincident index was created by Moore and Zarnowitz when they worked for the govt back in the late 1950s and is updated by the Conference Board. According to the index, the economic trough was June when the index hit 99.3. February’s 100.1 reading shows an eight month recovery so far. The economy has to advance over at least a six month period to make a call, so it should be clear. As we’ve seen over the last decade, the NBER hasn’t been very useful as their calls have been often wrong have to be revised. The economists are probably very good at theory, mathmatics, etc. They may be under some sort of political pressure that hasn’t been present in the past. For the business cycle, it’s much easier to set your own turning points using the index. The economy peaked October 2007 and troughed twenty months later in June 2009. The NBER says there is still a chance of a double-dip. That is true and a second recession would begin. We did this in the early 1980s. After having such a long period with six recovery years for every one recession year, it’s important to remember that 2:1 was a more normal ratio for many years and we’ve had long periods of 1:2. Politically, it’s hard to face the fact that we may have to deal with a length period showing a 1:2 ratio to balance out having had such a long 6:1 period. While most of us have only lived with a 6:1 ratio, it’s a false security to think of that as normal. Capitalism works but you have to be willing to take the downside with the up which we’ve resisted for many years and now are in danger of turning toward a planned society which takes away the upside, as well.
Dylan Ratigan lays out the con and talks with Alan Grayson (One thing he leaves out is the ultimate con. That’s that while everyone is focusing on the money con, it allows a power takeover. This last part is the reason for encouraging the first part. It’s a beautiful peace of work.)
www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/04/video-dylan-ratigan-with-bill.html
When you compare the 2000 and forward to 1973, the stock market action is similar in a lot of ways but that puts us in 1983. December 1984 was at the same level as May 1983, so we could have limited upside for a year and a half if stocks respond similarly to economic recovery inflation pressures. The average of economic recoveries would see stocks flatten out around 1200 and then move up closer to 1300 in late 2011. The reason we mention the limited upside norm the next year or so is the cycles that floundered saw it happen in what would be the second half of 2010. Generally, an investor wants a more favorable reward potential with more limited risk that what we have this year after May. The 10-day average calls relative to puts moved above 2x on Friday for the first time since a number of days in January 2004 except for one day in July 2005. 2005 didn’t do much into November that year. 2004 showed high readings for a month allowing the 20-day average to show two weeks of extreme readings. So, overbought markets can get more overbought and got to an extreme, but it’s good to know what we’re dealing with here.
The 4 Arms readings are the most under 4 since 2007, so we’ll see if the 40-day Arms can get down closer to .90 from .97 as it did before bottoming in 2007. Short-term advance/declines are neutral. The 25-day Arms was already at an extreme a week ago, so probably isn’t going much lower. We got down this low at the end of August09 and reversed immediately but not this time. Stock prices by the end of October09 were close to the same level as August on the S&P, so stocks can move up on an Arms reversal but the duration is limited. 2007 remained low from mid-April through May allowing the 40-day Arms to hit 0.91 before reversing, so maybe we get to see a repeat?
Markets (oil price and interest rate growth rates relative to the stock market):
Long term: Neutral 2/8.
Intermediate: Neutral 4/7.
Short-term: Neutral 4/9.
Sectors (basic materials and energy growth rates relative to the other sectors):
Long term: Neutral 9/10.
Intermediate: Neutral 11/11.
Short-term: Neutral 1/12.
