I heard something on the radio this morning that took my bullish leanings (not actions) and twisted them all about. On the local rock station, one that is the current home of Opie and Anthony and the former home of Howard Stern, they actually discussed how GM had to be a good deal if you could wait a few years. “I cannot see General Motors going away,” they said (paraphrased). “I cannot see the economy without this car maker.”
Does it scare anyone about the state of the stock market when disc jockeys – and shock jocks at that – are talking about buying beaten down stocks? The contrarian bull in me just died.
Still, I do agree. General Motors will be around in my view. But there is one great big thing to remember. Just because the company will live on does not mean your shares of stock will go up. What happens when they go bankrupt and get picked over by some hedge fund? Your shares go belly up.
What if there is a simple takeover by somebody with deep pockets? What will you make? A dollar on each 2.50 you put up? That’s a huge percentage but it is meaningless when you are buying a regular retail size.
And what if your “premium” over market price comes in the form of debt assumption? Then your profit will be bupkis (look it up).
Or a share exchange – 10 GMs for every share of White Knight Inc? Then you will own shares in a company that was not quite so “cheap” as GM and there goes your “deal of a lifetime” theory.
Yeah, GM will live but that does not make it a great investment. It might be great – really great – but don’t bet the ranch.