January
10,
2011 HOME EDUCATIONAL
PRODUCTS CONTACT
TONI An online version
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Commentary Market Breakouts Out,
But… (Note:
Unless otherwise stated, the
index
action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the
respective indices.
Actual index action may
differ slightly in terms of
pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.) MONDAY’S MARKET
WRAP-UP Market
Snapshot
for January 9,
2011 (10:30 p.m. ET):
Closing
Prices: DOW
12,392.69 (+32.77,
+0.27%), SandP
500 1,280.70 (+2.89,
+0.23%), NASDAQ
2,676.56 (+2.34, +0.09%), Nikkei 225 8,427.83 (+37.48, +0.45%), DAX 6,017.23 (-40.69, -0.67%), FTSE 5,612.26
(-37.42, -0.66%) OIL 101.57, GOLD 1,617.00, SILVER 29.07 EURO 1.2772,YEN 76.82, BRITISH POUND 1.5469, U.S.
DOLLAR INDEX 81.25 Slow start to the week,
but… After a week of stagnant trade, things are finally starting to look
promising. The market was stuck in a narrow trading range with light
volume into the holidays and even throughout the first week of trade in
2012 despite a jump into the first day of trade. But the indices hit
the equal move point on the congestion when comparing the time of the
end-of-the-year trading range to the one this past week and began to
show promise for an upside breakout. This promise began when the
indices rallied sharply in premarket trade on Monday morning. Then they
continued to bump up against the price resistance at the upper end of
the 30-minute trading channel, creating a change in the momentum within
the larger period of congestion. The breakout finally came afterhours
and into early premarket trade this morning. Dow
Jones Industrial Average (Figure 1) As earnings season unofficially kicks off following the release of Alcoa’s (AA) quarterly
results on Monday, the
market has another reason to show some action. Alcoa met earning
estimates and offered a positive outlook, providing comfort to those
looking for a strong start to last quarter’s earnings results. SandP
500 (Figure 2) Outlook Keeping the premarket momentum going, however, is another challenge
that will be more difficult to accomplish. Despite the rally of
December’s lows, the move has been on extremely light volume and each
step higher has been followed by a great deal of congestion. This has
created a slower overall move to the upside than seen at the end of
November, creating a shift in momentum that is going to leave the
market facing resistance once again on the intraday time frame as we
head into Tuesday’s opening trade. Additionally, the market rallied more swiftly off December lows than
over the past two weeks. The indices are now onto their third high on
the 30-minute time frame since December 23rd. This is creating another
shift in momentum on that time frame as well that will add further
pressure to the bulls, as will the resistance from last year’s highs,
which will be quite difficult to break without yet another correction
on the monthly time frame. So, if you missed the afterhours breakout (like most of those who trade
intraday would have), use extra caution on new bullish positions going
into early Tuesday morning and expect setups in that direction to be
limited overall to the smaller 2-5 minute time frames in the overall
market today. Nasdaq
Composite (Figure 3) Index
Wrap-up The
Dow Jones Industrial
Average ($DJI) ended the day on Monday with a gain of 32.77 points, or 0.27%, and
closed at 12,392.69.
Twenty-three of the Dow’s thirty index components posted a gain. The
strongest performers
were Alcoa (AA) (+2.95%), Bank of America (BAC) (+1.46%), and
Caterpillar (CAT) (+1.40%).
The weakest were Microsoft (MSFT) (-1.32%) and McDonalds (MCD) (-0.95%). The
SandP 500 ($SPX) finished the session with a gain of 2.89 points, or 0.23%, and
closed at 1,280.70. The
top performing industry groups were the industrials (+0.8%) and energy
(+0.6%). The strongest individual
percentage performers
in
the index were Netflix (NFLX) (+13.78%), Juniper (JNPR)
(+5.38%), and First Solar (FSLR) (+4.45%). The weakest industry groups
were the techs (-0.3%) and telecoms (-0.1%). The weakest individual
performers were Carefusion Corp. (CFN) (-8.63%), Google (GOOG)
(-4.24%), and Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) (-3.73%).
The Nasdaq
Composite
($COMPX) ended the session higher by 2.34 points, or 0.09%,
on Monday and
it closed at 2,676.56. The
strongest performers in the
Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) were Netflix (NFLX) (+13.78%), Green
Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) (+7.16%), and Avago Tech. (AVGO)
(+6.75%). The
weakest were Google (GOOG) (-4.24%), Costco (COST) (-2.61%), and
CTrip.com (CTRP) (-2.22%). ECONOMIC REPORTS AND
EVENTS THIS WEEK Jan 9 3:00
PM Consumer
Credit Nov Jan 10 10:00 AM Wholesale
Inventories Nov Jan 11 7:00
AM MBA Mortgage Purchase
Index 01/07
Jan 11 10:30 AM Crude
Inventories 01/07
Jan 11 2:00
PM Fed’s Beige
Book Jan Jan 12 8:30
AM Initial
Claims 01/07
Jan 12 8:30
AM Continuing
Claims 12/31
Jan 12 8:30
AM Retail
Sales Dec
Jan 12 8:30
AM Retail Sales
ex-auto Dec
Jan 12 10:00 AM Business
Inventories Nov
Jan 12 2:00
PM Treasury
Budget Dec Jan 13 8:30
AM Trade
Balance Nov
Jan 13 8:30
AM Export Prices
ex-ag. Dec
Jan 13 8:30
AM Import Prices
ex-oil Dec
Jan 13 9:55
AM Mich
Sentiment Jan
International:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -4:00) (New York, Toronto) Jan
08 CNY Business Climate Index (4Q)
Jan 08 16:45 NZD Trade Balance
(NOV)
Jan 08 16:45 NZD Balance (YTD)
(NOV)
Jan 08 17:30 AUD AiG
Performance of Construction Index
(DEC)
Jan 08 19:00 AUD HIA New Home
Sales (NOV)
Jan 08 19:30 AUD Retail Sales
s.a. (NOV) Jan
09 CNY Producer Price Index (DEC)
Jan
09 CNY Consumer Price Index (DEC)***
Jan 09 01:45 CHF Unemployment
Rate (DEC)
Jan 09 02:00 EUR German Trade
Balance (NOV)
Jan 09 03:15 CHF Retail Sales
(Real) (NOV)
Jan 09 04:30 EUR Euro-Zone
Sentix Investor Confidence
(JAN)
Jan 09 06:00 EUR German
Industrial Production n.s.a.
and w.d.a. (NOV)
Jan 09 10:30 CAD Business
Outlook Future Sales (4Q)
Jan 09 10:30 CAD Band of Canda
Senior Loan Officer
Survey (4Q)
Jan 09 15:00 USD Consumer
Credit (NOV) Jan
10 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (DEC)
Jan 10 08:15 CAD Housing Starts
(DEC)
Jan 10 18:30 AUD Westpac
Consumer Confidence (JAN) Jan
11 CNY Foreign Exchange Reserves (DEC)
Jan
11 JPY Leading Index (NOV P)
Jan
11 CNY New Yuan Loans (DEC)***
Jan 11 03:00 EUR
German Real GDP Growth (2011)***
Jan 11 04:30 GBP
Visible Trade Balance (NOV)
Jan 11 14:00 USD
Fed’s Beige Book***
Jan 11 18:50 JPY
Trade Balance – BOP Basis (NOV) Jan
12 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (DEC)
Jan
12 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (DEC)
Jan 12 01:00 JPY
Machine Tool Orders (DEC P)
Jan 12 02:00 EUR
German Consumer Price Index (DEC
F)***
Jan 12 02:00 EUR
German Consumer Price Index – EU
Harmonised (DEC F)***
Jan 12 04:30 GBP
Industrial Production (NOV)
Jan 12 04:30 GBP
Manufacturing Production (NOV)
Jan 12 05:00 EUR
Euro-Zone Industrial Production
w.d.a. (NOV)
Jan 12 07:00 GBP BOE
Asset Purchase Target
(JAN)***
Jan 12 07:00 GBP Bank
of England Rate Decision
(JAN 12)***
Jan 12 07:45 EUR
European Central Bank Rate
Decision (JAN 12)***
Jan 12 08:30 USD
Advance Retail Sales (DEC)***
Jan 12 08:30 USD
Retail Sales Less Autos (DEC)
Jan 12 08:30 USD
Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas
(DEC)
Jan 12 10:00 USD
Business Inventories (NOV)
Jan 12 10:00 GBP
NIESR Gross Domestic Product
Estimate (DEC)***
Jan 12 14:00 USD
Monthly Budget Statement (DEC)
Jan 12 23:00 JPY
Bankruptcies (DEC) Jan
13 CNY Industrial Production YTD (DEC)
Jan
13 CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (DEC)
Jan
13 CNY Real GDP YTD (4Q)***
Jan
13 CNY Retail Sales YTD (DEC)
Jan
13 NZD REINZ House Sales (DEC)
Jan 13 04:30 GBP
Producer Price Index Input
n.s.a. (DEC)
Jan 13 04:30 GBP
Producer Price Index Output
n.s.a. (DEC)
Jan 13 04:30 GBP
Producer Price Index Output Core
n.s.a. (DEC)
Jan 13 05:00 EUR
Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a.
(NOV)
Jan 13 08:30 USD
Trade Balance (NOV)
Jan 13 09:55 USD U.
of Michigan Confidence (JAN
P)*** ***
Highly influentialNotice:
The Bastiat Group, Inc. has attempted to verify the information
contained in this calendar, however, any aspect of such info may change
without notice. Foreign economic reports included in this list are only
those deemed medium to high impact. KEY EARNINGS
ANNOUNCEMENTS THIS WEEK
Monday, Jan 9, 2012
Before: AYI, AUGT, PENX, ZEP
During: –
After: AA, MG, OCZ, SCHN, SMSC, VOXX, WDFC
Tuesday, Jan 10, 2012
Before: –
During: –
After: RFMI, SNX
Wednesday, Jan 11, 2012
Before: LEN, LEDS, SVU
During: –
After: NDN, DRWI, EXFO, PRXI
Thursday, Jan 12, 2012
Before: INFY, SJR
During: BKSC
After: ESS
Friday, Jan 13, 2012
Before: JPM
During: – Note:
All economic numbers
and earnings reports are in line with those compiled by Briefing.com.
Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this
column and some companies have not confirmed their time, so always
double
check when taking positions overnight during earnings season! (?) = Not
yet confirmed at the time the list was compiled. DISCLAIMER
There
is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities. Past
results are not indicative of future returns. Prior
to
the execution of any securities trade, you should always consult with
your broker or other financial advisor. The
positions
given and described by the Bastiat Group, Inc. and its employees and
affiliates are for educational purposes only. The Bastiat
Group, Inc. and its members, employees, agents, consultants, analysts,
representatives, content and/or service providers, affiliates,
subsidiaries, successors and assigns (hereinafter collectively,
The
Bastiat Indemnities) assume no responsibility or liability for your
trading and investment results. Go to http://www.tonihansen.com/disclaimer.html
for a complete disclaimer. (C)
1998-2011 All information presented is property of
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