* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
It’s a bit of a “risk-off” trading day in the market place to start the new trading week, as European and U.S. stock indexes are weaker, while the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury prices are higher. The U.S. government is closed for the Columbus Day holiday Monday and there are no economic reports due for release. U.S. markets are open as usual. The Euro currency weakened overnight on more disappointing economic data coming out of the European Union. Industrial output in Germany declined by 0.5% in August. European Union finance minister meet later Monday in Brussels to discuss their ongoing debt crisis. On Tuesday German Chancellor Angela Merkel goes to Athens to discuss Greece’s finance problems.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,457.00 and then at the September high of 1,467.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,444.10 and then at 1,436.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,808.00 and then at 2,822.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 2,780.00 and then at last week’s low of 2,772.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,450 and then at 13,400. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,536 and then at Friday’s high of 13,597. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 148 16/32 and then at Friday’s high of 149 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 147 10/32 and then at 147 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer on short covering early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133.10.0 and then at Friday’s high of 133.15.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 132.27.5 and then at 132.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading today, on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.00 and then at last week’s high of 80.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.43 and then at last week’s low of 79.18. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears have gained the near-term technical advantage as prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $89.88 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $87.70 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are in a bearish posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is higher and crude oil prices are lower. Grain traders are awaiting Thursday’s USDA supply and demand report. The grain market bulls have faded amid harvest pressure and weakening worldwide demand for grains at higher price levels.
