So yes, tomorrow is the big jobs report ahead of the open. It’s already out there that the numbers will likely be poor due to the weather headaches this country has been suffering with thus some bad news is baked in ahead of the numbers. There are so many different ways this can play out. We all know that the market will do what it intended to do before this number comes out. You can’t ever stop a market from doing what it wants, no matter what news hits. If this market wants higher, a bad n umber can stall it very temporarily but it won’t matter over time.
Conversely, if this market wants lower from here, a great jobs report will create a gap up that fails. We can’t stop the machine, trust me on that one folks. I have no idea what the jobs number will bring but it won’t take long for us know what the market had in store for us anyway. It’ll do what it wants, not what we think it should do. Don’t get caught up emotionally in that. Accept the message and adjust accordingly. It will be fun for sure and more than a bit interesting but when you take that away, it’s all about a market direction plan put in place before the number appeared.
It’s often good to follow the message a particular stock is sending about the market. It’s not always the case with certain leaders but when a stock like Goldman Sachs (GS) makes a triple top breakout out of nowhere today on solid volume, it makes you stand up and take notice. It had been lagging badly and struggling mightily with the $160 level. Today it blew through that level, leaving no doubts as to its intentions. It was a very sudden and violent move. Would GS be making such a move after lagging for long if the market wanted lower? Always possible of course but somehow that doesn’t seem likely. When stocks such as Goldman Sachs (GS) or Apple (AAPL) along with a few others do something either very positive or very negative in nature and out of nowhere, you need to pay attention. GS has my attention now for this market and it seems bullish in nature.
It is very interesting how the market bulls are really pressing to keep the S&P 500 from giving back 1115. That was tough gap resistance and now that the bulls have claimed it back, they seem intent on not letting it go back below. Overbought only took it down for a retest but not below. The action there also talks a little. Little things that often mean a lot in the bigger picture. It’s still not forcefully above but the bulls are really pressing to keep it above.
One thing is clear in that the market is not powering ahead. It is grinding its way higher. Sentiment is neutral at worst thus there’s nothing there holding back the bulls but they have yet to make the big move back up since the S&P 500 corrected from 1151. It moved off the lows for sure but as we get closer and closer to 1151 the market is having a tougher time having big gains. Just a slow difficult grind with the market basically moving lateral in nature. What it will take to even get back to 1151 is hard to say but the trend is at least up overall.
It may take great news on jobs. It may take more than that or there may nothing the market can do to get above. Until we can blow through 1151 S&P 500 you need to remain with a bullish bias but nothing approaching aggressive. Only once cleanly through 1151 S&P 500 can we feel the bulls are stepping on the exposed necks of those bears. For now they simply have their arms pinned down but nothing more. Again, things are favorable but we’ll know a lot more once those job numbers are out tomorrow morning. Buckle up.
Peace,
Jack
