It’s that time of year again. It’s always that time of year, isn’t it! Seems to feel that way to me. It’s when we look inside the earnings reports of companies that had lowered the bar a few quarters back thus making it easy for them to meet or exceed expectations. We saw that tonight when we got the news from Intel Corporation (INTC) and CSX Corp. (CSX), a major rail company that has run way up. They beat easily as did INTC and both were higher after hours. They didn’t explode higher but were higher nonetheless.
The reason they didn’t explode higher was because both stocks have run up prior to their reports. However, it’s very important to recognize that they didn’t see off even after they reported good news. They’re not so full that they can’t go up a bit more. More importantly than that, it also tells me that any selling they both receive will be shallow in nature. The numbers just too good and folks will look to gobble up any selling down the road.
This week is big in that there are more critically important stocks reporting. Tomorrow morning we have JP Morgan Chase (JPM). Huge financial that will be very telling for that group. On Thursday we get Google (GOOG) and on Friday we get General Electric Co. (GE) and Bank of America (BAC). My gut says, how are any of them going to say anything really bad since the bar is set so low to begin with?! I just don’t think the earnings reports are really ever going to be all that bad when it comes to the very important stocks the market watches very carefully. Of course, there will have to be some nights when things aren’t great, but overall, you get the feeling that the earnings are going to be good for at least this quarter if not another one to follow in three months from now.
If earnings are good, it’s going to make selling this market difficult, although, I can promise a snap down sell off will take place when no one expects. Hard and fast and scary, and it should be bought without question. Normal for that to happen in raging bulls such as we have here. The market will have to sell some folks. It’s just that simple but this bull can only be matched technically on many levels with the ridiculous bull market of 1999. It’s not even close to being that strong but it is stronger when you look at the market overall. 1999 was froth on technology overall. It wasn’t a bull for everyone.
Technology destroyed the rest of the market and was destroyed unlike the rest of the market when the grim reaper came to collect on stocks up hundreds of percent on no earnings. This bull is more equal. Yes, the techs are leading but it’s a more broad based bull market for sure and thus much healthier and not as frothy. Snap downs will take place but you never know when they’ll hit. Most likely on bad earnings reports on any particular evening.
Sentiment is in play here. Tomorrow we get the updated numbers that last week threw up the red flag when it showed bulls over bears by 30%. Highest level in quite some time. Remember, it took 37.5% last time to cause our 9% correction. What will tomorrow bring is what we all want to know and as soon as I get those numbers, so will you. 30% is only a red flag that things are getting frothy but that level is by no means a sell signal. Let’s hope, if you’re a bull, that the numbers stayed roughly the same or even fell a drop. Still lots of non believers out there so tomorrow’s reading will be very interesting for sure.
There is no doubt that after our great run, we’re going to get caught in a few plays short-term when this puppy does roll over and play dead for a few days or weeks. It won’t feel good when this rubber snaps and it will. However, it won’t mean the end of the bull thus we’ll just have to hang in there when things get hit a bit. After the run we’ve had that should be no problem for any of you. You have to remain in the game to some degree or you’ll miss out on the grind higher and make no mistake, we are no longer blasting as this market is full short term. We are teeth to the chalkboard grinding here and that’ll continue until we finally snap.