From ONN.tv – Market Analyst Kevin Cook gets the scoop on the market and The Black Swan from Jeff Quinto of ElectronicFuturesTrader.com.
Kevin Cook: What questions came to mind when you read The Black Swan?
Jeff Quinto: The Black Swan talks about things that are so parallel in trading – the fact that we don’t have certainty. It just doesn’t exist, nor should it exist. In trading, it’s not about finding the perfect solution. You’re better off making a mediocre decision in a timely fashion that making th perfect decision too late.
KC: Predictions are almost useless. Another thing about predictions is I look at how Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke, they had to make decisions quickly. The point is they made decisions quickly not knowing what The Black Swan would be. Do you see any parallels there to the individual running his own trading business?
JQ: You have to have a trading plan. You’re going to risk a set amount of money.
KC: What kind of decisions do we have to make quicky with imperfect information?
JQ: Getting into the trade, getting out of the trade. It’s just a little probability, so move on from it.
KC: So, you need quick decision making knowing that if you’re wrong, there’s nothing to worry about.
JQ: Right. Some decisions will be right, some will be wrong. You just make them and move on. One of the values for me of The Black Swan is anything can happen at any time. Once you realize that, you’re not so set on what can happen. Who knows what could happen?
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