General Comment: Price action in the market place recently has witnessed U.S. Treasury market prices (T-Bonds and T-Notes) hammered to fresh multi-month lows, the U.S. dollar hit a fresh eight-month low versus its major counterparts, and the U.S. stock indexes hit multi-month highs. Meantime, crude oil futures have notched a fresh six-month high and are leading a strong rally in many other commodity futures markets.

What’s most compelling about recent price action are the clues provided regarding the flow of money in the market place. Money has been flowing out of U.S. Treasuries as investors’ general risk appetite has increased. However, the funds flowing out of the U.S. debt market are favoring not only the equities, but also hard assets (physical commodities). The shrinking value of the U.S. dollar on the world currency markets has exacerbated the speculator interest in owning raw commodity futures.

Recent history has proven that when money starts to flow into the raw commodity markets, supply and demand fundamentals in those individual markets tend to be ignored. Reason: The money flowing into those markets creates strong price up-trends on the charts that turn the technical posture of those markets bullish, prompting even more money inflows into those markets, which in turn makes the technical picture even more bullish. This is a powerful “money game” in markets that all traders must respect. Indeed, the old market adage, “The trend is your friend” rings very true.

With crude oil futures prices knocking on the $70.00-a-barrel door at present and being in a solid 3.5-month-old up-trend on the daily chart, this market is arguably the leader of the general bull market run in commodities. To request complimentary recent forecasts for oil go here. The other candidate for leading the commodity bull charge recently is the deteriorating value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major world currencies.

As long as crude oil prices can maintain an up-trend on the daily chart and the greenback remains in a weak posture, bull markets are likely to continue to play out in many commodity futures markets. Also, those commodity futures markets that have not participated in the strong rallies of late are likely to see some fresh speculative bargain-hunting buying interest from speculators.

LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $1.00 at $80.65 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh six-month low. The key “outside markets” were mixed for the cattle futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were steady-higher, crude oil prices were steady-lower and the U.S. dollar was lower. Cattle futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum today. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices above solid technical resistance at $83.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $78.15. First resistance is seen at $81.00 and then at today’s high of $81.85. First support is seen at today’s low of $80.40 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.5.

August lean hogs closed down the $3.00 limit at $63.05 today. Prices gapped sharply lower on the daily bar chart and hit a fresh contract low, amid very bearish cash hog market fundamentals. More serious chart damage occurred today. The key “outside markets” were mixed for the hog futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were steady-higher, crude oil prices were steady-lower and the U.S. dollar was lower. Hog futures bears have the solid overall technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push prices above solid chart resistance at $65.65, which is the top of today’s downside price gap on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $63.50 and then at $64.00. First support is seen at $62.50 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0

GRAINS: July corn futures closed up 3 3/4 cents at $4.49 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh seven-month high today. Price action recently has also produced a bullish upside “breakout” from a trading range. The key “outside markets” were mixed for the corn futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were steady-higher, crude oil prices were steady-lower and the U.S. dollar was lower. Go here to see complimentary recent forecasts for grains and its related markets. Corn bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage in corn. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $4.85 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $4.21 3/4 a bushel. First resistance for July corn is seen at today’s high of $4.50 and then at $4.55. First support is seen at $4.45 and then at today’s low of $4.40 1/2. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.5

July soybeans closed down 9 1/2 cents at $12.09 a bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range today and were pressured on mild profit taking. The key “outside markets” were mixed for the bean futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were steady-higher, crude oil prices were steady-lower and the U.S. dollar was lower. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $13.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of $11.51 a bushel. First resistance for July soybeans is seen at today’s high of $12.21 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $12.27. First support is seen at $12.00 and then at this week’s low of $11.85 3/4. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.

July Chicago SRW wheat closed down 5 cents at $6.69 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The market was pressured by mild profit taking. The key “outside markets” were mixed for the wheat futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were steady-higher, crude oil prices were steady-lower and the U.S. dollar was lower. Wheat futures bulls do have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close July futures prices above solid technical resistance at $7.00 a bushel. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.77 and then at $7.00. First support lies at today’s low of $6.58 1/4 and then at $6.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0.

METALS: August gold futures closed up $1.90 at $981.90 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. The market got some more support from a weaker U.S. dollar today. However, the gold market bulls may be getting exhausted as prices approach $1,000.00 an ounce. Gold bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bears’ next downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $940.00. Gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above major psychological resistance at $1,000.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $990.20 and then at $1,000.00. Support is seen at $975.00 and then at today’s low of $970.50. Predict the gold market with up to 80% accuracy – go here to see how. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.

ENERGIES: July crude oil closed up $0.15 at $68.73 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high and hit another fresh 6.5-month high today. Crude oil bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The “money game” in the commodity markets continues, whereby funds are flowing into commodities with crude oil leading the way. A six-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $60.00. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $70.00 a barrel. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $69.05 and then at $70.00. First support is seen at $68.00 and then at today’s low of $67.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.5.

CURRENCIES: The September Euro currency closed up 146 points at 1.4305 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another fresh 5.5-month high today. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.5000. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at last week’s low of 1.3785. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.4320 and then at 1.4400. Next support is seen at 1.4250 and then at 1.4200. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 78 points at 78.83 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh eight-month low today. Prices are still in an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 81.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 77.50. Next support lies at today’s low of 78.83 and then at 78.50. First resistance is seen at 79.00 and then at 79.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0.

FINANCIALS: September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 24/32 at 115 10/32 today. Prices closed near the session high and were supported on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues of a market bottom being close at hand. The next downside price objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 110 24/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 118 16/32. First resistance is seen at 116 even and then at 116 16/32. First support is seen at last week’s low of 114 12/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5

Note: The Market Rating System is based on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being the most bearish market rating and 10 being the most bullish market rating. The number 5 would be a neutral rating.