Thursday, December 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices that hit a fresh three-year low overnight.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I live in Iowa. I stopped by the gas station to fill up my tank yesterday and I paid $1.67 a gallon. It brought a smile to my face, after this summer paying around $4.00 a gallon, or nearly $80.00 to fill up my Jeep. Sharply lower gasoline prices are one bright spot during these gloomy economic times. The sharply lower gasoline prices in the U.S. will probably allow consumers to spend just a little more money on Christmas shopping. It could well be that lower gasoline prices in the U.S. will be one key factor to help pull the economy out of this recession. By the way, you’d like to know a bit more about this blog writer, you can check out my website at www.jimwyckoff.com and click on the “Meet Jim” section.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are mixed and near unchanged levels in early morning trading today. Trading has turned choppy this week, ahead of the key U.S. jobs report on Friday. Bears do still have the near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 850.00 and then at 835.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 875.00 and then at last week’s high of 894.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 834.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 854.95
1st Support:——– 837.90
2nd Support:——– 808.45
1st Resistance:—– 884.40
2nd Resistance:—– 901.45
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 1,117.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,175.00 and then at 1,188.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,119.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,144.50
1st Support:—— 1,130.75
2nd Support:—— 1,103.25
1st Resistance:— 1,172.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,185.75
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,500 and then more stops just below support at 8,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,600 and then just above resistance at 8,700. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,271
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,479
1st Support:—— 8,335
2nd Support:—— 8,092
1st Resistance:— 8,722
2nd Resistance:— 8,866
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are near steady in early trading today. Prices hit fresh contract and multi-year highs overnight. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage amid continued moves to the safest-haven investment vehicles in the world.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131 20/32 and then at 131 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the contract high of 133 2/32 and then at 133 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 130 13/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 131 16/32
1st Support:—– 130 23/32
2nd Support:—– 129 19/32
1st Resistance:– 132 20/32
2nd Resistance:– 133 13/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 124.14.5 and then at 125.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 123.14.5 and then at 123.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 122.21.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 123 7/32
1st Support:—– 122 22/32
2nd Support:—– 121 24/32
1st Resistance:– 124 5/32
2nd Resistance:– 124 22/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 88.71 and then at 89.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 88.00 and then at the overnight low of 87.66. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 87.53. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The December Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2542 and then just below support at 1.2500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2714 and then at 1.2754. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2655. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $776.70 and then at $780.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at this week’s low of $761.80 and then at $750.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $781.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today and hit a fresh three-year low overnight. Bears are still in overall near-term technical control. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $48.00 and then just above resistance at $49.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $45.30 and then more sell stops just below support at $45.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $49.29. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are bearish early today–crude oil prices are lower, the U.S. dollar is firmer and the U.S. stock indexes are steady to weaker. Bears continue to have the overall near-term technical advantage. Traders will take a look at today’s weekly USDA export sales data. However, grain traders have yet to pay real close attention to their own market’s supply and demand fundamentals, opting to continue to look to the outside markets for direction.
