Monday, January 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a lower U.S. dollar and higher crude oil and gold prices.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. dollar is getting hit hard early today and the commodity markets are bulled up early today because of that. If the dollar index closes solidly lower today and sees follow-through selling pressure on Tuesday, then the commodity markets are likely to see even more speculator and commodity fund money moving into the commodity markets, on the long side, in the near term.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes as gentle price uptrends remain in place on the daily bar charts.S&P 500 futures: Prices poked to another fresh 15-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,141.00 and then at Friday’s low of 1,131.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,150.00 and then at 1,160.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,126.00.

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh contract high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight contract high of 1,900.00 and then at 1,910.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,888.00 and then at 1,875.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,885.00

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh contract high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,550 and then more stops just below support at Friday’s low of 10,505. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,600 and then at 10,650. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,488

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are lower in early trading today. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage in bonds and notes, as six-week-old downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114 28/32 and then at Friday’s low of 114 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 6/32 and then at 115 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 10/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32 — lifetime high
122 21/32 — Previous Month’s high set on May 31
118 24/32 — 100-day moving average
116 12/32 — second pivot point resistance
116 9/32 — 18-day moving average
115 29/32 — first pivot point resistance
115 25/32 — previous day’s high
115 17/32 — 4-day moving average
115 15/32 — previous day’s close
115 14/32 — 9-day moving average
115 11/32 — pivot point
114 28/32 — first pivot point support
114 26/32 — previous month’s low set on Apr. 1
114 24/32 — previous day’s low
114 10/32 — second pivot point support
110 3/32 — lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.00.0 and then at Friday’s high of 116.10.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.24.0 and then at Friday’s low of 115.19.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.24.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32 — lifetime high
119 31/32 — previous month’s high set on Apr. 28
116 31/32 — 100-day moving average
116 22/32 — second pivot point resistance
116 12/32 — first pivot point resistance
116 11/32 — 18-day moving average
116 10/32 — previous day’s high
116 1/32 — previous day’s close
116 — 4-day moving average
115 31/32 — pivot point
115 25/32 — 9-day moving average
115 21/32 — first pivot point support
115 19/32 — previous day’s low
115 8/32 — second pivot point support
114 28/32 — previous month’s low set on Apr. 1
110 29/32 — lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today and hit a fresh three-week low overnight. Bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 77.25 and then at 77.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.02 and then at 76.75. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.22. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

The March Euro is higher in early electronic trading and hit a fresh three-week high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4500 and then at 1.4450. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4543 and then at 1.4600. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4569. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today and hit a fresh four-week high, amid the lower U.S. dollar. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,163.00 and then at 1,170.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,150.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,139.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,172.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today and hit a fresh 15-month high overnight. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage as a steep four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily chart. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $84.00 and then just above resistance at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $83.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $82.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.04. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading. The key outside markets are in a bullish posture for the grains today: lower U.S. dollar and higher crude oil and gold prices. The corn market is the strongest, at present, with wheat and soybean bulls recently fading. Traders are anxiously awaiting Tuesday morning’s USDA supply and demand report.