Tuesday, December 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
Note: I am working a limited schedule this week. My
friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen is
producing my reports. Ken’s style is different than
mine, but I think you’ll enjoy his style, too.–Jim
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it
extends the Santa Claus rally. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this year’s
rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-
decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing
at 1947.00 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 1810.77 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing
at 1881.50. Second resistance is the 75%
retracement level of the 2007-2008-decline on the
weekly continuation chart crossing at 1947.00.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 1832.92. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1810.77. The March NASDAQ 100
was up 6.00 pts. at 1880.50 as of 5:58 AM CST.
Overnight action sets the stage for a higher
opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session
begins later this morning.
The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it
extends last week’s rally and posted a new high for
the year. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If March extends this year’s rally, the 62%
retracement level of the 2007-2008-decline crossing
at 1155.15 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 1104.96 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is the overnight high
crossing at 1128.20. Second resistance is the 62%
retracement level of the 2007-2008-decline crossing
at 1155.15. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 1111.20. Second support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 1104.96. The
March S&P 500 Index was up 4.90 pts. at 1128.00 as
of 5:59 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage
for a higher opening by the March S&P 500 index
when the day session begins later this morning.
March T-bonds were mostly steady in quiet trading
overnight as it consolidates around the 62%
retracement level of the June-October rally
crossing at 115-02. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this month’s decline, the
75% retracement level of the June-October rally
crossing at 113-11 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
118-01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 116-20. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
118-01. First support is Monday’s low crossing at
114-26. Second support is the 75% retracement level
of the June-October rally crossing at 113-11.
ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil was slightly lower due to light
profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of
last week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If February extends this
rally, the reaction high crossing at 80.40 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 75.42 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 79.12.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
80.40. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 75.58. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 75.42.
CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was lower overnight and trading
below initial support marked by the 10-day moving
average crossing at 78.02. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting
that a short-term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
77.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If March renews this month’s rally, the 38%
retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing
at 79.72 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at
78.77. Second resistance is the 38% retracement
level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 79.72.
First support is the overnight low crossing at
77.71. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 77.03.
The March Euro was higher overnight and trading
above initial resistance marked by the 10-day
moving average crossing at 143.748. Stochastics and
the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-
term low might be in or is near. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 145.973 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If March renews this month’s decline, the
38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline
crossing at 140.976 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at
144.470. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 145.973. First support is last
Tuesday’s low crossing at 142.150. Second support
is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-
decline crossing at 140.976.
PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was lower overnight as it
consolidates some of Monday’s rally. However,
stochastics and the RSI have turning bullish
hinting that a short-term low might be in or is
near. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1133.60 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If February renews
this month’s decline, the 38% retracement
level of the 20008-2009-rally crossing at 1032.60
is the next downside target. First resistance is
Monday’s high crossing at 1114.50. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1133.60. First support is last Tuesday’s low
crossing at 1075.20. Second support is the 38%
retracement level of the 20008-2009-rally crossing
at 1032.60.
GRAINS
March corn was fractionally lower due to light
profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of
its gains of the past three days. However, the
high-range close overnight sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when the day session
begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If March extends Monday’s rally, the reaction
high crossing at 4.21 1/4 is the next upside
target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at
3.91 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
From a broad perspective, March corn needs to
close above 4.25 or below 3.77 1/2 are needed to
confirm a breakout of this fall’s trading range.
First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 4.18
3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 4.21 1/4. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 4.05 1/2. Second support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.01 1/4.
March wheat was lower due to profit taking
overnight as it consolidates some of Monday’s rally
but remains above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 5.42. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when
the day session begins trading later this morning.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If March extends Monday’s rally, the 50%
retracement level of the November-December decline
crossing at 5.59 1/2 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
5.31 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s
high crossing at 5.50 3/4. Second resistance is the
50% retracement level of the November-December
decline crossing at 5.59 1/2. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 5.42. Second
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
5.31 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 24 1/2-cents at
5.46.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were lower due to profit taking
overnight as they consolidate some of Monday’s
rally. The low-range overnight close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when the day session
begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI
have turned bullish signaling that a short-term low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 10.38 3/4 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If
March renews this month’s decline, the 50%
retracement level of this fall’s rally crossing at
9.86 1/4 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
10.38 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 10.77 1/4. First support is last
Tuesday’s low crossing at 9.92 1/4. Second support
is the 50% retracement level of this fall’s rally
crossing at 9.86 1/4.
