Monday, May 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher crude oil prices and firmer U.S. stock indexes.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
By scanning my price screen early this morning, it appears the markets want to start out the week trading more on their own supply and demand fundamentals and less on what the “outside markets” are doing. This is evidenced by firmer U.S. Treasury prices despite firmer U.S. stock indexes, and by weaker grain prices despite bullish outside markets for them. Still, my bias is that the key outside markets–crude oil, the U.S. stock indexes and the U.S. dollar index–will continue to hold significant “sway” over most of the other markets for at least the near term.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. The bulls are fading as price uptrends on the daily charts are “rolling over.”
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 875.40 and then at the May low of 862.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday’s high of 895.00 and then at 900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 888.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 884.95
1st Support:——– 874.90
2nd Support:——– 866.75
1st Resistance:—– 893.10
2nd Resistance:—– 903.13
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,359.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,337.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 1,374.00 and then at 1,389.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,326.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,356.85
1st Support:—— 1,339.70
2nd Support:—— 1,325.10
1st Resistance:— 1,371.40
2nd Resistance:— 1,388.60
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,300 and then more stops just below support at 8,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 8,370 and then just above resistance at 8,400. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,243
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,282
1st Support:—— 8,195
2nd Support:—— 8,122
1st Resistance:— 8,355
2nd Resistance:— 8,442
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today. Bulls have gained a bit of upside near-term technical momentum recently, but need to show more power soon to keep it.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 122 28/32 and then at Friday’s low of 122 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 123 12/32 and then at last week’s high of 123 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 124 13/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 122 31/32
1st Support:—– 122 8/32
2nd Support:—– 121 22/32
1st Resistance:– 123 17/32
2nd Resistance:– 124 8/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 121.23.0 and then at last week’s high of 122.02.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 121.18.5 and then at Friday’s low of 121.06.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 121.25.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 121 16/32
1st Support:—– 121 3/32
2nd Support:—– 120 25/32
1st Resistance:– 121 26/32
2nd Resistance:– 122 7/32
CURRENCIES
The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are still bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.33 and then at 83.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.75 and then at Friday’s low of 82.37. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 83.12. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The June Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3450 and then at the overnight low of 1.3420. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3550 and then at 1.3600. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3407. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today. For June gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of $934.80 and then at $938.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $927.60 and then at Friday’s low of $924.10. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $909.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $58.00 and then just above resistance at $59.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $57.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $56.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $57.62. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are bullish early today as the U.S. stock indexes are firmer, crude oil prices are higher and the U.S. dollar is weaker. The fact that the outside markets are bullish should limit selling interest in the grains today.
