Monday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices.

*JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Can you believe it’s already the end of the first quarter of the year! The last trading day of the quarter and of the month (which occurs this Wednesday) are technically significant. Portfolio managers also tend to do more adjustments just before and just after the end of the quarter and the month. Thus, trading action this week could be extra active and volatile, and extra significant from a technical perspective.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Prices are hovering near 1.5-year highs. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as steady two-month-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts.

 

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,164.30 and then at Friday’s low of 1,156.80. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week’s high of 1,176.20 and then at 1,180.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,161.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at last week’s high of 1,974.00 and then at 1,985.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,954.25 and then at Friday’s low of 1,938.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,946.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,800 and then more stops just below support at Friday’s low of 10,755. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of 10,890 and then at 10,925. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,788

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker in early trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 1/32 and then at last week’s low of 114 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 11/32 and then at Friday’s high of 115 21/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 30/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32–lifetime high
118 2/32–Previous Month’s high
117 1/32–9-day moving average
116 29/32–18-day moving average
116 21/32–100-day moving average
116 1/32–second pivot point resistance
116 –4-day moving average
115 23/32–first pivot point resistance
115 21/32–previous day’s high
115 14/32–previous day’s close
115 12/32–pivot point
115 2/32–first pivot point support
115 –previous day’s low
114 23/32–second pivot point support
114 15/32–previous month’s low
109 15/32–lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.00.0 and then at 116.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.22.0 and then at 115.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.04.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32–lifetime high
117 16/32–previous month’s high
116 29/32–18-day moving average
116 11/32–second pivot point resistance
116 10/32–100-day moving average
116 7/32–4-day moving average
116 5/32–first pivot point resistance
116 1/32–previous day’s high
115 30/32–previous day’s close
115 26/32–pivot point
115 25/32–9-day moving average
115 20/32–first pivot point support
115 16/32–previous day’s low
115 9/32–second pivot point support
113 18/32–previous month’s low
109 29/32–lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today, on some profit-taking pressure. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.91 and then at 82.32. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.44 and then at 81.25. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 81.46. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The June Euro is higher in early electronic trading, on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3418 and then at 1.3400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3506 and then at 1.3550. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3487. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are higher in early dealings today, on more short-covering and amid a weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,113.80 and then at $1,120.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,103.10 and then at $1,100.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,110.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. The bulls have faded as the recent uptrend on the daily bar chart is rolling over. Prices produced a bearish weekly low close on Friday. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $81.00 and then at $81.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at Friday’s low of $79.54. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $80.45. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering. The key “outside markets” are in a bullish posture for the grains early today. The U.S. dollar index is weaker, while crude oil, gold and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer. Grain traders are awaiting one of the most important USDA reports of the year: Wednesday’s the USDA planting intentions report. Traders look for higher U.S. corn and soybean planted acres, with lower wheat acres planted. However, it’s likely traders have lready factored into futures prices the expectations for this report. Key will be if there are any surprises in the report.