Friday, February 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
After posting gains on Thursday, the grains were under selling pressure overnight. Trading has turned very choppy in the grains this week, which is not bullish, even though the February Break may be over.–Jim
STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in Thursday’s high of 1,339.00 and then at 1,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 1,322.30 and then at last week’s low of 1,306.10. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index futures: Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical esistance is located at this week’s high of 2,403.00 and then at 2,415.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,379.75 and then at this week’s low of 2,370.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Dow futures: Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday’s low of 12,235 and then more stops just below support at 12,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 12,305 and then at 12,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 15/32 and then at this week’s high of 119 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 even and then at 118 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
134 4/32–lifetime high
124 19/32–100-day moving average
122 5/32–Previous Month’s high
120 10/32–second pivot point resistance
119 27/32–first pivot point resistance
119 25/32–previous day’s high
119 13/32–previous day’s close
119 11/32–pivot point
119 9/32–18-day moving average
119 8/32–previous month’s low
119 2/32–4-day moving average
118 28/32–first pivot point support
118 26/32–previous day’s low
118 14/32–9-day moving average
118 12/32–second pivot point support
116 26/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 119.07.5 and then at 119.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118.27.0 and then at 118.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
127 7/32–lifetime high
122 16/32–100-day moving average
121 15/32–previous month’s high
119 20/32–second pivot point resistance
119 12/32–18-day moving average
119 11/32–first pivot point resistance
119 7/32–previous day’s high
119 4/32–previous month’s low
119 1/32–previous day’s close
118 29/32–pivot point
118 23/32–4-day moving average
118 20/32–first pivot point support
118 17/32–9-day moving average
118 16/32–previous day’s low
118 6/32–second pivot point support
109 25/32–lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today, on some short covering. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 78.50 and then at this week’s high of 78.98. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 77.99 and then at 77.50. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly lower in early trading today. Bears still have some downside technical momentum on their side as prices Tuesday hit a fresh 2.5-month low. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week’s high of $86.63 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $85.65 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, on a corrective pullback from Thursday’s gains. No serious chart damage has yet been inflicted, but the choppy trading at higher price levels is a warning signal of a near-term topping process.
