Tuesday, December 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
NOTE: I am on vacation this week and my friend and fellow market analyst/trader Ken Seehusen is writing my reports. Ken’s style is a bit different from mine, but I think you’ll enjoy and benefit from Ken’s work.
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the off the rally off November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November’s low, the November 2007 high on the weekly chart crossing at 2256.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2203.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 2239.00. Second resistance is the November 2007 high crossing at 2256.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2223.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2203.83. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 3.50 pt. at 2233.55 as of 5:34 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this year’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year’s rally, the July 2008 high crossing at 1313.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1231.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1256.30. Second resistance is the July 2008 high crossing at 1313.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1245.43. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1231.16.
The March S&P 500 Index was up 2.50 pts. at 1255.80 as of 5:36 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
March T-bonds were slightly higher overnight as it extends the rebound off this month’s low.
Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October’s high, June’s low crossing at 120-26 is the next downside target.
First resistance is last week’s high crossing at 122-02. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-02. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 121-27. Second support is June’s low crossing at 120-26.
ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off November’s low.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November’s low, May’s high crossing at
93.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 91.07. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 93.87. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.12.
CURRENCIES
The March Dollar gapped down and was sharply lower overnight signaling the corrective rally off last week’s low has likely come to an end. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with the overnight decline signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November’s low, the 50% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at 82.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.19. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 81.94. First support is the reaction low crossing at 79.15. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 78.44.
GRAINS
March corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November’s low. The high-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November’s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 6.59 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.84 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 6.19. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009- decline crossing at 6.59 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.01 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
5.84 3/4.
March wheat was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off last week’s low. The high- range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 8.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.68
1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.11. Second resistance is August’s high crossing at 8.64 1/4. First support is the 20- day moving average crossing at 7.68 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7.42.
March soybeans were higher overnight as it extends this year’s rally. The mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November’s low, monthly resistance crossing at 14.34 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 13.96 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 14.34 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.36 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.14.
—Jim
