Thursday, December 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are sharply higher gold prices and higher crude oil prices amid a lower U.S. dollar.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
One of the main reasons traders read this morning report is to obtain near-term technical support and resistance levels for the markets I discuss. I wrote a feature story a while back on how to determine technical support and resistance levels on the charts. If you’d like to read that story, just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll attach the story and email it back to you.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are near unchanged in quieter early morning trading today, with selling interest limited on news that the U.S. House late Wednesday did pass a bailout package for U.S. auto makers.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday’s low of 884.00 and then at 876.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s high of 907.00 and then at this week’s high of 918.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 924.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 895.60
1st Support:——– 883.65
2nd Support:——– 872.10
1st Resistance:—– 907.15
2nd Resistance:—– 919.10
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,206.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,180.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 1,238.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,254.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,209.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,221.00
1st Support:—— 1,204.00
2nd Support:—— 1,189.00
1st Resistance:— 1,236.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,253.00
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of 8,645 and then more stops just below support at 8,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,800 and then just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of 8,880. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,806
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,747
1st Support:—— 8,613
2nd Support:—— 8,512
1st Resistance:— 8,848
2nd Resistance:— 8,982
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 13/32 and then at 133 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 134 17/32 and then at the contract high of 135 2/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 131 23/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 133 27/32
1st Support:—– 133 5/32
2nd Support:—– 132 1/32
1st Resistance:– 134 31/32
2nd Resistance:– 135 21/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 123.15.5 and then at this week’s high of 123.22.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 122.16.0 and then at 122.09.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 121.26.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 122 27/32
1st Support:—– 122 8/32
2nd Support:—– 121 14/32
1st Resistance:– 123 21/32
2nd Resistance:– 124 8/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today. Prices hit a fresh six-week low overnight and the bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 85.50 and then at 86.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.00 and then at 84.63. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 84.64. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading and hit a fresh six-week high overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3068 and then just below support at 1.3000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3217 and then at 1.3250. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3276. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today and hit a fresh seven-week high overnight. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $840.00 and then at $850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $825.00 and then at $820.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $843.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bears are still in overall near-term technical control. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $46.00 and then just above resistance at $47.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $44.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $43.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $46.35. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were steady to higher in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are bullish early today–crude oil prices are higher, the U.S. dollar is lower and the U.S. stock indexes are steady to firmer. Grain traders are awaiting this morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. That report is not expected to be bullish for the grains. If the grains can post a solid rally today, amid neutral to bearish USDA data released today, then that would suggest at least near-term lows are in place.
