Thursday, June 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a firmer U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil prices.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Traders: How many times have you wished your market entry and/or exit would have been better in a trade? Of course, we all want to get in at the very bottom and out at the very top, or sell at the very high and buy back at the very low. But that just doesn’t happen in trading markets. I wrote a feature story a while back called “Entry and Exit Strategies.” If you want to improve upon your own market entry and exit, then I suggest you read my story. Just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll attach it and email it back to you.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are steady to mixed in early morning trading today. Bulls and bears are fighting for near-term technical control, with neither gaining much of an advantage recently.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned down. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday’s low of 899.50 and then at 890.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 911.60 and then 924.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 903.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 906.30
1st Support:——– 898.55
2nd Support:——– 891.80
1st Resistance:—– 913.05
2nd Resistance:—– 920.80
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at this week’s low 1,437.00 and then at 1,425.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,459.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1,470.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,454.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,453.50
1st Support:—— 1,437.00
2nd Support:—— 1,420.50
1st Resistance:— 1,470.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,486.50
September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,400 and then more stops just below support at 8,350. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,450 and then at Wednesday’s high of 8,505. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,435
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,451
1st Support:—— 8,396
2nd Support:—— 8,356
1st Resistance:— 8,491
2nd Resistance:— 8,546
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower in early trading today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, and today have regained some downside momentum after some short covering recently.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115 even and then at 114 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 even and then at 116 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 18/32
September U.S. T-Bonds
138 27/32–lifetime high
122 22/32–100-day moving average
122 11/32–Previous Month’s high
117 22/32–second pivot point resistance
117 4/32–previous day’s high
116 26/32–first pivot point resistance
116 7/32–pivot point
115 29/32–previous day’s close
115 21/32–previous day’s low
115 11/32–first pivot point support
115 9/32–4-day moving average
115 4/32–18-day moving average
114 24/32–second pivot point support
114 12/32–previous month’s low
114 6/32–9-day moving average
110 8/32–lifetime low
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.08.5 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 114.16.0 and then at 114.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.20.0
September U.S. T-Notes
125 24/32–lifetime high
120 14/32–previous month’s high
119 17/32–100-day moving average
116 8/32–second pivot point resistance
115 25/32–previous day’s high
115 23/32–first pivot point resistance
115 12/32–previous month’s low
115 8/32–pivot point
115 7/32–18-day moving average
115 6/32–previous day’s close
114 27/32–4-day moving average
114 25/32–previous day’s low
114 23/32–first pivot point support
114 8/32–second pivot point support
114 4/32–9-day moving average
109 –lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 81.35 and then at the June high of 81.97. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.48 and then at 80.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The September Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Prices are trending lower from the June high. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3850 and then at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3982 and then at 1.4000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4063. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. Prices are still trending lower from the June high. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $944.00 and then at $950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $935.00 and then at $930.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls are fading a bit this week, but still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend on the daily chart that is still in place. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $72.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $72.33. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $70.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $69.83. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Traders will scrutinize today’s weekly USDA export sales data. The grains continue to look to the outside markets for direction. The outside markets are mostly bearish for grains early today as the U.S. stock indexes are steady-mixed, crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. dollar is firmer. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans.
