* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The much-anticipated ECB monthly monetary policy meeting is under way as of this writing Thursday morning. While there are growing beliefs the ECB will at some point cut its key interest rate and further ease its monetary policy, the majority of analysts and economists polled believe the ECB won’t make any policy move on Thursday. The market place will closely scrutinize ECB President Mario Drahi’s remarks at his press conference following the meeting. There is a larger contingent of market watchers that believes the ECB will move to ease its monetary policy at its December meeting, when fresh economic statistics will also be released by the ECB.

Recent EU inflation numbers are a bit worrisome as they suggest deflationary conditions could be on the horizon for the bloc. The recent EU inflation data bolsters ideas the ECB could move to ease its monetary policy in an effort to keep the tepid EU economic recovery moving forward.There is also important U.S. economic data due for release Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the advance GDP estimate for the third quarter, and ICSC chain store sales trends.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Friday’s key U.S. employment report for October. The non-farm payrolls number of that report is expected to have grown by around 120,000. The jobs report will be a gauge in helping the market place figure out when the Federal Reserve will start to wind down its quantitative easing of monetary policy.China’s Communist party meets this weekend, during which time major plans and economic reforms are unveiled by the leaders of the country. The world market place will be closely watching for any proclamations coming from that confab.

Wednesday’s Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (ECB meeting Thursday, including bank president Draghi’s press conference following the meeting, could cause some market volatility. Also, some important U.S. economic data is out Thursday that could move the markets.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off). Each morning I will look at several markets and scan the world’s news headlines to get a sense of how risk appetite in the market place will shape for the trading day. For example, extreme readings in my Daily Risk Rating would be a very bullish U.S. jobs report that would fully cheer investors—Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating would be 1. Conversely, a daily rating of 10 would be an unexpected military confrontation in the Middle East that included combat. Most days Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating will be around neutral–between 4 and 6.)–Jim Wyckoff
 
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Mild profit taking is featured. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 1,773.10 and then at 1,785.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,756.30 and then at last week’s low of 1,747.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,385.00 and then at last week’s high of 3,401.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 3,355.75 and then at 3,335.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s record high of 15,685 and then at 15,700. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 15,610 and then at 15,525. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 133 9/32 and then at 133 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 132 24/32 and then at 132 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 127.09.0 and then at 127.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.27.5 and then at 126.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today, on tepid short covering. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 80.800 and then at this week’s high of 81.025. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 80.455 and then at 80.320. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher early today on tepid short covering after hitting a more-than-four-month low on Tuesday. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week’s high of $95.40 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $94.46 and then at $94.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly firmer overnight. Look for quieter trading Thursday, ahead of Friday’s latest monthly supply and demand report. That report is not expected to be bullish and is likely to show record U.S. corn and soybean production. There is also fresh weekly USDA export sales data out Thursday morning. Technically, the corn bears are in firm command, while soybeans are slightly bearish on a near-term basis and wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage.