The key “outside markets” that have been impacting most other markets so heavily recently are crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar and the U.S. stock indexes. This “outside market” phenomenon is also called Intermarket analysis. This concept has been studied for decades and has also been developed into the VantagePoint market analysis program by the respected markets veteran Lou Mendelsohn. Indeed, veteran traders have known for many years that markets are all inter-related to some degree. Let’s examine and analyze these three key markets from a VantagePoint perspective.
U.S. Dollar Index
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
To see more FREE recent market predictions for currencies go here!
June U.S. dollar index futures (DX M9) prices last Thursday closed at a bullish weekly high close. Dollar index bulls have regained the near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 87.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the March low of 83.14.
From an Intermarket analysis perspective provided by VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis software (www.TraderTech.com), it also appears there will be more upside price pressure in the June dollar index futures in the near term.
VantagePoint is a valuable trading tool for which a trader can glean clues on potential near-term price trend changes or continuation of present trends. These near-term clues provided by VantagePoint can and do give a trader a key edge.
See on the VantagePoint daily bar chart for the June dollar index that the Predicted Medium Term Crossover study shows the blue predicted 4 day exponential moving average is crossing above actual black 10 day simple moving average close, which is a near-term bullish signal.
The Predicted Medium Term Crossover is the predicted 4 day exponential moving average of typical prices two days ahead (P4EMA+2) crosses above or below the actual 10 day simple moving average close (A10SMA).
Also see at the bottom of the daily chart for April gold that VantagePoint’s Predicted Neural Index (PIndex) is presently reading 1.00, also suggestingupside price pressure in the near term for the June dollar index. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is “1.00,” indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is less than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is “0.00,” indicating the market is expected to move lower over the next two days. The PIndex is a proprietary indicator that predicts whether or not a three-day simple moving average of the typical price will be higher or lower two days in the future than it is today. The Predicted Neural Index compares two three-day moving averages to one another – today’s actual three-day moving average with a predicted three-day moving average.
Dow Futures
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
To see more FREE recent market predictions for indices go here!
June Dow stock index futures (DJ M9) prices on Thursday closed higher, near the session high, hit a fresh two-month high and closed at a bullish weekly high close. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 8,213. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of 7,430. It also appears there will be some more upside price action in the June Dow futures in the near term.
See on the VantagePoint daily bar chart for the June Dow futures that the Predicted Triple Crossover is in a bullish mode, as the shorter-term moving averages are above the longer-term moving averages. The Predicted Triple Crossover involves these three moving averages: Predicted 3-Day EMA Typical One Day Ahead (P3EMA+1); Predicted 8-Day EMA Typical Two Days Ahead (P8EMA+2); Predicted 18-Day EMA Typical Three Days Ahead (P18EMA+3).
VantagePoint predicts a change in market trend direction when the Predicted 3-Day EMA Typical One Day Ahead crosses the Predicted 8-Day EMA Typical Two Days Ahead. This prediction is confirmed when the Predicted 8-Day EMA Typical Two Days Ahead crosses the Predicted 18-day EMA Typical Three Days Ahead.
Also see at the bottom of the daily chart for April gold that VantagePoint’s Predicted Stochastic indicator has just produced a bullish line crossover. The Predicted Stochastic indicator is based on the position of the close relative to the high or low of the day. During periods of price decreases, the daily closes tend to accumulate near the daily lows. During periods of price increases, the daily closes tend to accumulate near the daily highs. The Predicted Stochastic indicator is an oscillator designed to predict overbought and oversold conditions one day in advance.
Predicted Stochastic (PStoch) predicts a 14-day stochastic oscillator (%K) one day ahead, comparing the market’s current close to its price range over a period of time. Stochastic Trigger (Trigger) predicts a 3 day moving average (%D) of the stochastic oscillator (%K) one day ahead.
The Predicted Stochastic charts the two lines, Predicted Stochastic (%K) and Stochastic Trigger (%D), plotted on a scale ranging from 0 to 100. Readings above 80 predict an overbought condition; readings below 20 predict an oversold condition (thresholds indicated by dashed lines on chart). The Predicted Stochastic (%K) line is faster and more sensitive than the Stochastic Trigger (%D) line. When the Predicted Stochastic (%K) crosses over the Stochastic Trigger (%D) line in overbought (>80) or oversold (<20) territory, this could be an indication that the market is about to reverse course.
Crude Oil
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
To see more FREE recent market predictions for energies go here!
May crude oil futures (CL K9) are presently in a choppy trading mode that finds bulls and bears struggling for technical control of the market. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the April low of $47.26. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $54.66 a barrel. It appears there will be more downside price pressure in May crude oil futures in the near term.
See on the VantagePoint daily bar chart for May crude oil that the Predicted Long-Term Crossover study shows the blue predicted 6-day exponential moving average is below the actual black 15-day simple moving average close, which is a bearish signal.
Predicted Long Term Crossover – the predicted 6 day exponential moving average of typical prices three days ahead (P6EMA+3) crosses above or below the actual 15 day simple moving average close (A15SMA).Actual 15 Day SMA Close (A15SMA)- the actual 15 day SMA (simple moving average) of close prices. Predicted 6 Day EMA Typical 3 Days Ahead- predicts a six-day EMA (exponential moving average) of the typical price three days ahead. The typical price is the average of the high, low, and close.
See, too, at the bottom of the VantagePoint chart for May crude oil futures that Predicted Moving Average Convergence Divergence (PMACD) indicator is also in a bearish mode, as the PMACD line is below the “trigger” line of the indicator. Also, both lines are trending lower, which is bearish.
Predicted MACD is another way of using moving averages to predict market changes. Predicted MACD charts the difference between two predicted exponential moving averages and uses another exponential moving average of the MACD as a trigger for trading signals.
Predicted MACD (PMACD) predicts the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) one day ahead. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator calculated by subtracting a 20-day exponential moving average from a 10-day exponential moving average. MACD Trigger (Trigger) predicts the MACD trigger one day ahead. The MACD trigger is calculated as a 9-day exponential moving average of the MACD. When the Predicted MACD line crosses below the Trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current uptrend to a new downtrend. When the Predicted MACD line crosses above the Trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current downtrend to a new uptrend. Another crossover indicator occurs when the Predicted MACD crosses above or below the zero line. Predicted MACD can also be used as an overbought/oversold detector when it pulls away from the Trigger, suggesting the price of the market may be due for a correction that will bring the averages back together. Predicted MACD can also be used to spot underlying strength or weakness when its movement diverges from the movement of prices.
