Some days, I just shake my head. We have become so accustomed to “living by the numbers” that we accept whatever comes across the wire, no questions asked. Well, I reject the numbers below. Something is amiss, as these numbers dramatically fly in the face of every other economic indicator that has recently come out …
The latest Philadelphia Fed Index dove sharply in April. It came in at 18.5 after it had been at 43.4 in the prior month. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for an April reading of 33.0.
Wouldn’t it be nice if we had more clarity about the Fed thinking regarding monetary policy? Oh, wait. It looks like we will. Maybe, though, I should be careful about what I wish …
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s decision to hold news briefings may help inoculate the U.S. central bank from political meddling, while offering financial markets more clarity on monetary policy. Bernanke holds the first regularly scheduled briefing by a Fed chief in the central bank’s 97-year history next Wednesday, kicking off a four-times-a-year event.
Language is the ultimate clarifier, if one uses it well. The person speaking in the excerpt below could not have characterized the debt ceiling issue any better, and he is a conservative …
“Shutting down the government is like a really bad stomach ache. The debt limit is like a heart attack,” said a congressional analyst at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.
And then you have this use of language, which is the opposite in tone from the language used above, but it carries the same effect, and he is a liberal …
People say, “Oh my God, it would be a financial catastrophe.” Yes, it would, but guess who’s first in line for the financial catastrophe: the people on Wall Street. Let them pick up the phone and educate the Republicans on how destructive these threats are.”
Survey numbers, press conferences, and political statements all come on the heels of more explosive corporate earnings from the tech sector. The iconic and influential Apple exceeded expectations in all categories, except IPods shipped. Corporate earnings, then, seem to be carrying the day, as they have for some quarters now. It supports my argument that the rest is just fluff and stuff, as all investors ultimately care about is profit and growth.
Though a default isn’t likely, the almost inevitable brinkmanship could unnerve investors …
Okay, so investors sometimes forget profit and growth, but language still clarifies, if used well. Note that I used the word “ultimately” in my statement above. I know, not much help … Keep your eyes open and pay attention, as the political language will soon enough muddy the market waters …
Trade in the day – Invest in your life …
