Man-oh-man, the last few days have tuckered me out. The most tiring aspect has been trying to stop eating, and let me tell you that takes work when everyone is pushing turkey, pies, and other such holiday leftovers. Whoever said this holiday was relaxing Oh wait, that was me …
So here is a question from a reader, and it is one I usually don’t answer because I am not in the business of predicting specific market movement when asked, however, I will offer some “food for thought,” even if no one has a bit of room left for any more food, of any kind.
Do you think UNG (Natural Gas Fund) will break ten dollars this winter
September 14th was the last time UNG was above $10. Since then, it has rolled down to below $8. So, will it get back up there this winter Think about it this way … The price of UNG rolled down with the market in September, but as the market rallied in October, UNG did not. Why not Answer that question and you might have your answer about the near-term pricing of UNG.
So, today, the shorts are getting caught holding the bag, so to speak. The Dow is up some 300 points as I write because good rumors are floating about Europe (again) and those betting against salvation there have to run from their positions as the bull herd rushes at them. Yet even with this maniacal rush on hope, the day might end badly if some dodo politician opens his or her mouth to express his or her oh-so important point of view.
EVEN as the euro zone hurtles towards a crash, most people are assuming that, in the end, European leaders will do whatever it takes to save the single currency. That is because the consequences of the euro’s destruction are so catastrophic that no sensible policymaker could stand by and let it happen.
The above has been my position, but it is no longer. After the U.S. super dodos failed this month, and remembering how close to the brink U.S. politicians brought the world last summer, I have lost my sense that politicians will, ultimately, act in the best interests of the many, not just the few. I am becoming cynical, a mindset both foreign and uncomfortable for me. I now see as a distinct possibility the breakdown of the whole kit and caboodle, a collapse in the euro and a disintegration of the Eurozone. I now see ripples from this potential catastrophe washing over every economy in the world, and the mud will take a long time to clean up.
This cannot go on for much longer. Without a dramatic change of heart by the ECB and by European leaders, the euro could break up within weeks. Any number of events, from the failure of a big bank to the collapse of a government to more dud bond auctions, could cause its demise.
On the other hand, if the politicians can get it together, then things are looking much better. As I suggested back in August, the U.S. holiday season was shaping up to be a big one …
Sales rose an estimated 6.6 percent to a record $11.4 billion on Black Friday, typically the busiest shopping day of the year, while the traffic at stores rose 5.1 percent. The National Retail Federation, an industry trade group, expects 152 million people to hit stores this weekend, up 10.1 percent from last year.
Trade in the day – Invest in your life …
