Okay, I admit it. I stayed up late last night to watch the ending of the EU summit on Squawk Box Asia (CNBC). I couldn’t resist. I just had to know how it would all come out. And now I know, as does everyone else. Frankly, though, aside from a moment of doubt about two weeks ago, I always believed that it would come to this. I am also sure that I said so many times in this column, perhaps ad nauseum.
Like sharks to a feeding frenzy, the analysts are already telling everyone the problems with the agreement, and some are simply saying that none of it will work, that the debt issues are simply too great. Now, I understand that this is not the end. I understand the breadth of the problem, but I also understand that something “big” had to get done now to begin to resolve the debt issues and to calm the fear of the market. More work is to come, but this is a start, a really good start …
So, now we come to the “super committee” in the U.S. Congress. I am going on record to say that they too will “see the light,” and, like the various factions in Europe, both parties will have to swallow bitter pills, but, in the end, they will choose America over party, just as European policy makers chose the Eurozone over country. Shoo! Go away! Get back in there Pollyanna.
I can’t help myself. The excitement of the European news combined with the complete destruction of the know-it-alls who have been screaming for months that America is doomed, the global economy is doomed, is almost too much to bear. “Recession is coming, recession is coming,” they hollered as loudly as they could. Looking at the U.S. GDP number today makes me want to break into song, well, maybe a whistle, no, actually just working up a smile and enjoying a quiet gloat will work.
The economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the third quarter as consumers and businesses stepped up spending, creating momentum that could carry into the final three months of the year.
Truly, I am not a mean person. In fact, I consider myself to be kind, but the doomsayers just drive me crazy, and when they are as wrong as they are today, well, a lap or two around the track at their expense makes me feel darn good.
Aside from exhibiting my personal joy today, I do have a point to make – the machinations that drive global economies are complex and intricate and the markets that trade on the global economies are just as complex and intricate. However, neither the global economy nor the global market operates in a vacuum. If one carefully watches the myriad economic indicators that flow daily across the globe, one has a better chance of “predicting” an outcome than those who simply take the worst of the news (or the best) and predict an outcome based solely on that.
So, let’s enjoy this moment “in the sun,” as those of us who resisted the Siren calls can now take our profits and spend them on a beautiful beach, as opposed to crashing around on the rocks.
Trade in the day – Invest in your life …
