I didn’t get to watch the market today. I had to get up early and didn’t get home until 2 1/2 hours after the close. But the day wasn’t completely surprising. I thought we’d head down after some upshot because of the 9% down day yesterday (you can only have so many of those before the entire market would become delisted). I was surprised by how high the market went, but in retrospect it feels healthy. If nothing propels the market upward tomorrow (e.g. a GM/F/whoeverelse bailout; free money for every man, woman, and child; or, a Murdoch whistle blower saying this entire sub-prime mortgage mess is a sham), we probably won’t head all that far upward tomorrow. If we break the Thanksgiving highs on some decent volume, then things change–resistance becomes support and whatnot. But, I don’t think that is going to happen.
I did not participate in any trading today. And I didn’t change any positions over at Rob’s. Over there, I’m still in cash after trading in my puts on the SPY for a ~75% gain after a nearly ~180% gain in C calls. Part of it is luck, part of it is charting, and even though I didn’t have any money on the line, it boosted my self-confidence (a little,) in option trading. I probably won’t be able to trade tomorrow either. I’d look for resistance at 850, then 865/870, judging by the P&F. If the market decides to wipe out today’s gains and head down to 815, I’d watch out below, especially on high volume.
PS: You don’t want to be short if the NYSE Bullish Percent Index makes an X above 30. Historically, going from below 30 to above 30 precedes a rally of some sort. While it is at ~26 right now and unlikely to make it above 30, it is still a good indicator to keep in mind while trading these volatile markets.