Friday, October 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

As usual the market place early Friday is anxiously awaitingwhat is arguably the most important U.S. economic report ofthe month: the employment situation report due out at 8:30a.m. eastern time. The key non-farm payrolls figure is seenrising by 118,000 in September. More volatile trading inmany markets is possible in the wake of the jobs report. Inovernight news, the Euro zone economy contracted in thesecond quarter–down 0.9% from the second quarter of lastyear. The market place is still waiting on a financialbailout request from the European Union by Spain. It isbelieved that when Spain asks the EU for financialassistance, the European Central Bank would then step in tobuy Spanish bonds. In other news, the Bank of Japan left itsinterest rates unchanged and did not announce fresh stimulusmeasures after its regular meeting. Other U.S. economic datadue for release Friday includes consumer installmentcredit.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day movingaverage is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is belowthe 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slowstochastic) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-termtechnical resistance comes in at the September high of1,467.50 and then at 1,475.00. Buy stops likely reside justabove those levels. Downside support for active traderstoday is located at Thursday’s low of 1,444.10 and then atWednesday’s low of 1,436.00. Sell stops are likely locatedjust below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating:5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day movingaverage is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastic) arebullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance islocated at 2,836.25 and then at 2,850.00. Buy stops likelyreside just above those levels. On the downside, short-termsupport is seen at Thursday’s low of 2,807.75 and then atWednesday’s low of 2,788.00. Sell stops are likely locatedjust below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technicalsupport at Thursday’s low of 13,450 and then at 13,400. Buystops likely reside just above technical resistance at13,545 and then at the September high of 13,580. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-daymoving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-daymoving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastic) are neutral tobullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are fading to end the week.Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutralearly today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastic) are bearish early today.Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 149even and then at 149 16/32. Buy stops likely reside justabove those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies atthe overnight low of 148 15/32 and then at 148 even. Sellstops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’sIntra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Bulls are fading a bit. Shorter-termmoving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish earlytoday. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastic) are bearish earlytoday. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight highof 133.15.5 and then at Thursday’s high of 133.24.5. Buystops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-termtechnical support lies at 133.08.0 and then at 133.00.0.Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’sIntra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.trading today. Bears still have the overall near-termtechnical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar indexare bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-termtechnical resistance at 79.75 and then at Thursday’s high of80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of79.35 and then at 79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating:5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Traders are tryingto recover from the high volatility seen the past two days.Bulls and bears are back on an overall level near-termtechnical playing field. In November Nymex crude, look forbuy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnighthigh of $91.62 and then at $92.50. Look for sell stops justbelow technical support at $90.00 and then at the Septemberlow of $88.95. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5