Wednesday, November 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly higher U.S. Treasury prices and weaker U.S. stock index futures prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Look for lighter-volume dealings in many of the markets today, as many traders will be hitting the exit doors early, to get a jump on the Thanksgiving holiday. However, markets can be moved faster and farther in lighter volume. Also, very-light-volume trading can produce false “breakouts” and other types of price moves that are then invalidated once volumes return to normal.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Most traders do not want to go home for a long holiday weekend with long positions.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 825.00 and then at 817.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 855.50 and then at 875.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 840.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 853.55
1st Support:——– 833.20
2nd Support:——– 813.15
1st Resistance:—– 873.60
2nd Resistance:—– 893.95
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,117.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,100.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,144.25 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1,171.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,161.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,141.40
1st Support:—— 1,111.10
2nd Support:—— 1,086.70
1st Resistance:— 1,165.85
2nd Resistance:— 1,196.20
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,250 and then more stops just below support at 8,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,400 and then just above resistance at 8,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,290
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,436
1st Support:—— 8,279
2nd Support:—— 8,113
1st Resistance:— 8,602
2nd Resistance:— 8,759
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are solidly higher in early trading today. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid continued moves to the safest-haven investment vehicles in the world.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127 13/32 and then at 127 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 128 15/32 and then at 129 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 125 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 126 27/32
1st Support:—– 125 15/32 2nd Support:—– 123 5/32
1st Resistance:– 129 5/32
2nd Resistance:– 130 17/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh contract high overnight. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 122.24.0 and then at 123.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 121.16.0 and then at 121.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 121.15.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 120 25/32
1st Support:—– 119 26/32 2nd Support:—– 118 14/32
1st Resistance:– 122 5/32
2nd Resistance:– 123 4/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 86.50 and then at 87.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.00 and then at the overnight low of 85.60. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2850 and then just below support at 1.2800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3000 and then at the overnight high of 1.3045. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2797. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, on a corrective profit-taking pullback. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $821.50 and then at Tuesday’s high of $834.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $811.10 and then at Tuesday’s low of $803.70. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $781.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $52.00 and then just above resistance at $53.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $50.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $49.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $53.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are neutral early today–crude oil prices are firmer and the U.S. dollar is also firmer. U.S. stock indexes are weaker. Trading has turned choppy in the grains, and within trading ranges. Such may be the case during the month of December, too. There has not been much new fresh fundamental news in the grain markets recently, so traders are continuing to focus on the outside markets for direction.
