Microsoft Word – HVR-NR4IB.doc

The US Dollar had a good rally yesterday, and was still in decent shape until the results from the 7 year Note auction were released.  I don’t know who led who, but Noon seemed to turn all sorts of markets around-stocks and commodities rose, the USD broke.  Does all this mean anything?  I still get the sense the markets are spinning their wheels right now; maybe next week’s economic numbers will shake things up.

Does today’s break spell trouble for the Dollar?  A close under the June low might be bearish, although it has spent a fair amount of August under it.  I’d view a break of the lower trendline as a more bearish sign; for tomorrow that level is at 77.93 basis the September futures. The August low is also the low for 2009; watch for more press about the demise of the dollar if that’s taken out. With thin trade this week and a lot of economic releases next week, next week should be more significant.

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