Bond ETF prices crossed below 50-day SMAs on 10/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,454.92) recovered most of its losses since its peak on 10/5/12. It appears the SPX found some support at its 50-day SMA (now standing at 1430.57) during Friday’s session.

It certainly looks like the bull is back from the edge of the cliff and heading for another run at the highs. Low volume tells a different story, however, suggesting that the demand for stocks at these levels is tepid.

The technical condition of the stock market does not support the excessive optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Fed and ECB plans to buy bonds in unlimited quantities (with fiat currencies printed out of thin air and backed by nothing but a theory and a hope) do not guarantee that stock prices will continue to rise, especially now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside correction seems overdue. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.

*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1430.57, 50-day SMA
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1371.32, 200-day SMA
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. TLT whipsawed back above its 200-day SMA on 9/19/12. TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 120.92, 120.67, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 125.09, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. IEF has remained above its 200-day SMA since 4/5/12, and its 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.23, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.70, 108.99, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below its 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned bullish on 10/10/12 when the TIP/IEF 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. TIP/IEF remains above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) 50-day SMA fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/2/12, thereby turning systematically bearish. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. UUP’s Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 10/15/12. DBA turned systematically neutral on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. DBA remains above its 200-day SMA but could cross below in days ahead if DBA continues to decline like it has over the past 4 last weeks. DBA’s 50-day SMA remains well above its 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support 32.52, 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 weeks on 10/15/12, suggesting a minor correction. GLD turned systematically bullish on 9/20/12, when its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA. GLD price rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 10/1/12, rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12, and rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12. Support: 166.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 weeks on 10/12/12, suggesting a minor correction. GDX/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 . The GDX/GLD 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11, although that 50-200 spread has been narrowing since 9/5/12, and the 50 could cross above the 200 in days ahead.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 10/15/12, suggesting a minor correction. SLV turned systematically bullish on 10/1/12 when its price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Support 31.46, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 33.23, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 10/15/12, suggesting a minor correction. SLV/GLD turned systematically bullish on 10/9/12 when its 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. SLV/GLD crossed above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12 and crossed above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 weeks on 10/15/12, suggesting a minor correction. JJC rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/7/12. JJC remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 8/8/12, however, and a crossover appears possible in weeks ahead if price holds up or rises. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.61% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
5.60% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
4.27% , KR , KROGER
1.61% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
7.12% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
4.60% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
1.19% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
4.69% , STT , STATE STREET
0.41% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
2.57% , WMB , WILLIAMS
1.60% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
4.08% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
3.67% , GLW , CORNING
2.80% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
2.47% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
1.11% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
3.18% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
2.91% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
0.98% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
2.44% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
4.01% , MET , METLIFE
0.78% , PID , Dividend International, PID
2.85% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.34% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
3.87% , HES , AMERADA HESS
1.38% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.83% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
2.40% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
6.05% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
1.86% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
0.93% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
2.80% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
3.07% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.02% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-2.91% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-3.20% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-3.77% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-2.41% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-1.35% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.94% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-3.79% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-3.30% , OMC , OMNICOM
-1.06% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.05% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-1.79% , BBT , BB&T
-0.27% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.91% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-2.55% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-1.38% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.12% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.06% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-2.89% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.38% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-1.90% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.03% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-2.42% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-0.60% , KO , COCA COLA
-1.89% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-1.35% , ZION , ZIONS
-0.27% , NCR , NCR
-0.27% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-0.33% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-0.61% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-0.36% , CVS , CVS
-1.29% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-1.08% , KEY , KEYCORP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.08% Spain Index, EWP
3.18% Italy Index, EWI
2.96% France Index, EWQ
2.85% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.53% EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.40% Materials SPDR, XLB
2.39% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.28% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.08% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.07% South Africa Index, EZA
1.92% Germany Index, EWG
1.85% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.82% European VIPERs, VGK
1.79% Networking, IGN
1.78% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.76% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.74% Austria Index, EWO
1.72% Belgium Index, EWK
1.68% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.66% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.63% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.63% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.61% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.60% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.59% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.51% Energy DJ, IYE
1.50% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.50% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.47% Global 100, IOO
1.44% Japan Index, EWJ
1.44% Sweden Index, EWD
1.41% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.41% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.38% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.37% South Korea Index, EWY
1.36% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.33% Mexico Index, EWW
1.32% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.26% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.22% Energy Global, IXC
1.21% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.21% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.19% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.19% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.17% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.16% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.15% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.14% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.14% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.13% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.12% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.11% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.11% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.11% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.08% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.08% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.08% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.06% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.05% Singapore Index, EWS
1.04% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.04% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.04% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.03% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.03% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.02% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.01% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.00% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.99% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.99% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.98% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.98% Water Resources, PHO
0.96% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.96% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.96% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.96% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.94% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.94% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.94% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.91% Canada Index, EWC
0.90% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.90% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.88% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.86% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.85% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.85% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.84% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.84% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.83% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.82% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.80% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.78% Dividend International, PID
0.78% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.77% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.77% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.75% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.74% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.67% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.66% Australia Index, EWA
0.66% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.65% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.64% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.63% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.63% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.62% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.61% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.61% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.59% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.59% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.57% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.57% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.55% China 25 iS, FXI
0.52% Russia MV, RSX
0.50% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.48% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.47% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.47% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.44% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.44% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.41% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.40% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.39% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.38% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.37% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.28% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.25% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.24% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.19% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.17% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.15% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.12% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.08% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.07% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.07% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.16% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.37% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.43% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.43% India PS, PIN
-0.47% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.12% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.38% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT