Greetings again, Everyone!
While The Fed Decision and even Retail Sales this morning is no real surprise to most… may we say the Rhetoric of Bernanke and the Fed’s “Tone” is rather surprising?
No… period.
In my personal view, an “unwritten” Duty of the Fed, Fed Chairman, and literally any Bureaucratic Entity is to calm the waters through optimism, and ease the pain of the Constituency.
Central Banks do this all the time… with the BoJ being the prime example over the past few years.
The “Jawboning” rhetoric there became so incessant, that we simply ignored it on a global scale time and time again.
Retail Sales Data, “true” Revisions in Employment Figures, and deep underlying Housing concerns prove this point once again.
The chasm between What is Known and What is Heard continues on with the Status Quo.
We are still caught in these larger Ranges of Price Action, despite the Summer Volatility and ever-so-slowly increasing Volatility we usually seasonally see in August.
Time-Cycle Analysis gives us a clearer picture here. We see The EUR/USD regaining some status since it has been “weighted down” and “lagging” in correlating with other Units. The Hourly chart shows clear Bullish Momentum as we now move into some accumulating Activity with a Symmetrical Triangle Formation.
A Break to the upside shall see the 1.4320’s Static Resistance in the Immediate-Term, while a Risk-Averse Failure may lead Price to the 1.4240’s/00’s in this same Immediate-Term.
Out on the Daily… we can see the Macro-Range of Consolidation we have been in the last few Weeks, which really does “subdue” Risk Aversion, or Appetite for that matter, as we move forward.
The 1.3800 to 1.4400 Range has contained Price for three months as the “Summer Doldrums” has played out this year, and with the Fiber holding the most Activity and Transactional Costs in the OTC Currency World… this certainly holds significance, in my personal view.
From the IntraDay View, recent Risk Aversion suits this scenario nicely, despite the talk we hear of the States potentially leading the way on the “Road to Recovery”.
Dollar Strength is simply due, once again, to Safe-Haven Low-Yielding Inflows.
It has nothing to do with the Dollar being inherently “healthy” in Value and Strength.
In the Immediate-Term, we continue on… but in the Long-Term?
We shall see.
