* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is still digesting Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes of the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). The U.S. stock indexes and gold rallied and the U.S. dollar index sold off in the wake of that report. Traders and investors looked at the FOMC minutes and decided the last FOMC meeting, combined with recent remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, paint a picture that is decidedly more dovish than they had earlier reckoned. Most now believe it will be a longer period of time before the Fed starts to raise its interest rates. More money in the U.S. banking system (quantitative easing) is bullish for the U.S. stock market and also bullish for raw commodities due to the inflationary implications.

In overnight news, China’s latest trade data again disappointed the market place. March exports were down 6.6% year-on-year, while imports fell 11% in the same period. Part of the decline in exports was blamed on companies over-inflating their invoices on exports last year. This news is a bearish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector, as China is the world’s largest raw commodity importer.

A Greece government bond auction Thursday has garnered very good investor demand, reports said. The market place perceives Greece to be on sounder economic and political footing—even though a report was released Thursday showing the Greek unemployment rate at 26.7% in January.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export price indexes, the monthly Treasury budget statement, and ICSC chain store sales trends.

The Russia-Ukraine tensions are still on the minds of traders and investors this week. Pro-Russian demonstrators in Ukraine have become more active recently. The NATO secretary-general on Thursday called on Russia to withdraw its troops from the Ukraine border and stop making trouble. This situation could flare up quickly and once again become a geopolitical flash point.  Gold would likely see safe-haven demand increase on any escalation of this conflict.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are moving closer to the front burner of the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from Wednesday’s gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,867.50 and then at 1,880.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,857.50 and then at 1,850.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today on a corrective pullback from Wednesday’s gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,600.00 and then at 3,625.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,577.00 and then at 3,550.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today, on a corrective pullback from Wednesday’s gains. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 16,366 and then at 16,400. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,300 and then at 16,250. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit a two-week high following the bullish FOMC minutes. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover not far below the contract high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133 29/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 133 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0 June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today and hit a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.17.0 and then at 124.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 124.10.0 and then at the overnight low of 124.04.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading and hit a fresh three-week low overnight. The bears have downside near-term technical momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.645 and then at 79.800. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.480 and then at the March low of 79.375. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a five-week high overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage and still have upside momentum. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $103.81 and then at the March high of $104.48. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $102.50 and then at $102.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans pushed to new for-the-move highs Wednesday, but then posted low-range closes, which suggests the bulls may be getting exhausted after their recent upside price assaults. In wheat, the bears have downside momentum to suggest that market has topped out, at least for the near term. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.