* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The Group of 20 nations are meeting in Moscow on Friday and Saturday. In the days heading up to the meeting there have been finance officials’ remarks and a G-7 statement, mostly directed toward and trying to downplay the much-talked-about prospect of “currency wars.” Many industrialized nations have in recent months, or longer, worked to devalue their currencies to revive their economic growth. Japan has been aggressively moving to devalue the yen in recent months. Reports Friday said the G-20 will issue a statement pledging to work toward growing their economies and not devaluing their currencies. The fact world finance ministers are working so hard to play down the matter is a clue that they are actually very worried about the prospect of currency wars. European markets were subdued Friday, ahead of the weekend G-20 meetings. This overall situation could be an underlying bullish factor for the precious metals down the road, due to the inflationary implications. The Lunar New Year celebration is occurring this week in Asia. China, the number-two economy in the world, is on holiday all week for the celebration. That is keeping Asian markets quiet and is also keeping physical demand for gold coming out of Asia on the light side. U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, Treasury international capital data, industrial production and capacity utilization, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and quarterly e-commerce retail sales.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading today on some mild profit taking. Prices are hovering near a five-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1,521.80 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,490.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early trading on some more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,769.00 and then at this week’s high of 2,783.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,750.00 and then at 2,725.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild profit taking after hitting a five-year high on Wednesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,900 and then at 13,850. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of 14,004 and then at 14,050. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short covering in a bear market. Prices are still not far above the recent contract low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 143 30/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 143 14/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today on mild short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.23.5 and then at 131.29.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.16.5 and then at 131.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is firmer early today and hovering near a five-week high. The greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls are showing the kind of power recently to suggest a market bottom is in place. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thurday’s high of 80.71 and then at the January high of 80.99. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.30 and then at Thursday’s of 80.14. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today on mild profit taking, and are seeing limited buying interest from a firmer U.S. dollar. However, the bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $97.47 and then at $98.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $96.61 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on short covering. Grain market bulls have faded recently as the seasonal “February Break” phenomenon is at hand. Bears have the near-term technical advantage in the grains.