* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
With China back in play after a week-long holiday the market place is looking to the world’s second-largest economy for raw commodity demand clues. There were reports overnight that China’s centrally planned economy is seeing some restrictions put on home financing due to higher property prices, which leads to ideas China could tap the brakes on its economic growth rate. In European news overnight, the German ZEW economic expectations index hit a three-year high in its latest February report. That’s another clue that the European Union economy has turned the corner toward better conditions ahead. Italian and Spanish bond yields crept lower Tuesday following a well-received Spanish debt offering. European traders are anxiously awaiting Italian elections beginning Sunday. The OECD reported Tuesday that overall world economic growth in developed countries contracted by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2012–the first collective declined in three years. The market place is awaiting Wednesday afternoon’s release of the latest minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting. These minutes in the past few months have been market-movers. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday in light and includes the NAHB housing market index.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 1,521.80 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,515.30 and then at 1,500.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at last week’s high of 2,781.75 and then at 2,790.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,758.25 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,900 and then at Friday’s low of 13,880. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of 13,978 and then at last week’s high of 14,004. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short covering in a bear market. Prices are still not far above the recent contract low. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 143 25/32 and then at last week’s high of 143 30/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 143 2/32 and then at Friday’s low of 142 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today on mild short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.21.0 and then at last week’s high of 131.25.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.11.0 and then at Friday’s low of 131.08.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is higher early today and hovering near a six-week high. The greenback bulls are showing power recently to suggest a market bottom is in place. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 80.83 and then at the January high of 80.99. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.58 and then at 80.30. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today on mild profit taking, and are seeing limited buying interest from a firmer U.S. dollar. However, the bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $96.49 and then at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $95.74 and then at the February low of $95.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Markets were mixed overnight on short covering. Corn and wheat were near steady and soybeans were solidly higher on some better demand ideas. Bulls are hoping this will be the week that grain futures prices pull out of their “February Break” funk.
